794
FXUS63 KMQT 150836
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
336 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EAST
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TODAY. ONLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL FLUFFY INCH IS EXPECTED.
- EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING, WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK, WITH THE NEXT ONE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STORM FORCE WIND AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EVENT COULD BE SEEN
ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS AND A FLASH FREEZE
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS IMPACTS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING HAS FINALLY OVERCOME A STOUT DRY LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS FINALLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE (1/2 INCH
PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES TO MOVE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EAST HALF
UNTIL THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WHILE THIS MAY BRING A QUICK-HITTING
FLUFFY INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P.
THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE MILE OR LESS,
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR TO THE MORNING COMMUTERS (I.E. THIS ISN'T
TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR US YOOPERS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS). AS
FOR THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY LATE THIS MORNING, EXPECT
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST WIND SNOW
BELTS (I.E. THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE NORTH
OF MUNISING); WE COULD SEE UP TO A FLUFFY INCH, BUT NOTHING ELSE
REALLY. AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THOUGH, EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO QUICKLY DWINDLE, EVENTUALLY
ENDING OVER THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AIR OVER US TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FINALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE U.P. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW HIGH ABOVE FREEZING WE WILL GET
ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN.
WHILE TYPICALLY THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SEEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE NAM SUITE OF GUIDANCE HOLDS A ROBUST INVERSION
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE U.P. ON
TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE SWITCH FROM A WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THAT BEING SAID, THE NAM SUITE IS THE
OUTLIER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION, SO STILL THINKING THAT WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS A CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE WE
COULD SQUEAK OUT SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SPOTS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER,
WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF US, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EVEN
IF IT DOES OCCUR (LOW CHANCE THAT IT EVEN DOES, AROUND A 15% CHANCE
OR LESS). AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WIND BELTS, POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE,
AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN, THOUGH, IMPACTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANYTHING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH WE WOULD TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW OVER THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE HAVE LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT DROP BACK DOWN WELL BELOW FREEZING (TEENS TO 20S). IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND
THE KEWEENAW; AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS UP TO A 50% FOR NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE KEWEENAW AND
JUST ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF IT. SHOULD THESE
HIGHER WINDS BE REALIZED, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
KEWEENAW TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE
REALIZED. WHILE WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES FALL FROM ABOVE TO
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THINKING IMPACTS WILL BE RELEGATED TO
ANY UNTREATED AREAS HAVING BLACK ICE FORM NEAR THE RECENTLY MELTED
SNOWPACK. HOWEVER, NOT REALLY THINKING TOO MUCH WILL MELT (SAVE FOR
MAYBE THE DOWNSLOPES BY LAKE SUPERIOR, AND THAT'S QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
THE LOW DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS) AND THUS THINKING
THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE PRETTY PATCHY IN NATURE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDING IN ALLOWS HIGHS TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO POTENTIALLY MID
30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WE HAVE THE GREATEST INTEREST IN IS THE ONE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRAVELING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT AROUND 990MB ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE VORT MAX
OF THE LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS HAD SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
PRESSURE AT THE SFC SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED (SAVE FOR IN THE EURO),
THE TRACK FOR THE LOW HAS LARGELY REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WARM FRONTOGENESIS MAY BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW,
DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND SLEET OVER THE AREA INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING
THIS NORTH OF US, THINKING WE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN DRY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE INVERSION CREATED BY THE INCOMING
GULF AIR DEEPENS OVERHEAD. AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT TO GENERALLY SEE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG IT AS THE INVERSION DISSIPATES, ALTHOUGH A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN JUST SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE COLD FRONT
COULD BE SEEN AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO RAPIDLY COOL.
HOWEVER, THINKING THE TRANSLATION BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
AT THE SFC WILL TAKE SOME TIME (I.E. UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS). BECAUSE OF THIS, WE CAN STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING SEEN OVER THE EAST AS THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR REGIME THE LONGEST. AS THE ARCTIC AIR FROM
THE BEHIND THE LOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.P. LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PROGRESSIVELY DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MOVES OVER THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE THE MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE
DIMINISHED THE FLASH FREEZE THREAT A LITTLE BIT, GIVEN THE LIGHT
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(WHICH ALSO IS BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA), WE
COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY ICE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE ROADWAYS. WHILE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 40 MPH COULD BE SEEN
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER, THE STRONGER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR
GREATER (50% CHANCE; HIGHEST IN THE KEWEENAW) COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA, NOT TO MENTION POTENTIALLY
EVEN LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AND KEWEENAW. THE
STRONG WINDS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL, COULD
BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE NOT TOO MUCH SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED,
WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES BEFORE RIDGING MOVING BACK IN ON
FRIDAY TEMPORARILY ENDS THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
THE SAME SHORTWAVE/RIDGE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, WITH SNOWFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH EACH SHORTWAVE EVENT. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A DEVELOPING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT UPPER MICHIGAN TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO TREND
DOWNWARD BACK TOWARDS MVFR 08-12Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-
15 KT. LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO KCMX AND KSAW WHILE GUIDANCE ONLY
DEPICTS AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT KIWD. SNOW ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL BRING VARIABLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO KCMX AT TIMES ON MON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS CONDITIONS TREND BACK TOWARDS
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING GO AWAY AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE LOW RESPONSIBLE DIVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
AND RIDGING REPLACES IT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE WE CAN EXPECT SOME NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TO REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE WINDS
TO SLACK DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
BEING SAID, WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, DON'T EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO
STAY AROUND LONG WHEN THEY DO OCCUR. INDEED, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
BRINGS SOUTHWEST GALES OF AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS BACK ACROSS THE LAKE
(HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW). AS
THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW PUSHES BACK THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO PROGRESSIVELY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME, EVEN AS
GALES TO 40 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE WEAKENING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST; SOME
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY COULD BE SEEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT'S
PASSAGE.
WHILE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOT OR LESS RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING), EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, WE COULD SEE SOUTHERLY GALES OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UP TO
AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE). AS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS OF
50 KNOTS (WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS POSSIBLE) ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING (AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER ACCORDING TO THE
NBM). IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WINDS, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO
RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO CREST OVER 20 FEET EAST OF THE KEWEENAW.
THEREFORE, I CANNOT RECOMMEND ENOUGH TO AVOID TRAVERSING THE WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ221.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
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