507
FXUS63 KMQT 162317
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
617 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
KEWEENAW WHERE THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
45 MPH. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE CURRENT ONE GOING UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STORM FORCE WIND AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
EVENT COULD BE SEEN THURSDAY.
- THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK COULD CREATE
TIMES OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. SEE ANY
PERTINENT LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFO.
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS, A FLASH FREEZE,
AND/OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS
IMPACTS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
MULTIPLE CLIPPER LOWS WILL IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE U.P, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST TEMPERATURES
WERE STRUGGLING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER THAT WAS LIMITING
HEATING. WINDS WERE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH STRONGER GUSTS AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. IT WAS MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE U.P TODAY, WITH A FEW FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS SKIRTING THE
WI/MI BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE U.P LATE
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE U.P BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE LOW 20S BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES (8MB/6HR) AND CROSS ISALLOBARIC
FLOW. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND LOCALLY 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY
AGAIN, AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE U.P ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR STARTING TO
RETREAT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA INCLUDING
ALMOST THE WHOLE KITCHEN SINK AS FAR AS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES, MORE STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO THE U.P LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES OF 1-3C. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SUFFICIENT MELTING LAYER TO BRING A FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P, AT LEAST DURING THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION.
MODEL STILL DIVERGE ON THE MAGNITUDE AND RATE OF SURFACE WARMING BUT
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING RATHER QUICKLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 3"+ AROUND 50-75% OVER THE NNW WIND SNOWBELTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. MOST MODELS KEEP STRONGER FGEN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A NOTABLE DRY SLOT AT
700MB AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE DGZ. THE GFS AND GEFS SEEM TO BE THE
OUTLIER SCENARIO WITH SOLUTIONS THAT GENERALLY FAVOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AS THE CLIPPER LOW WEAKENS AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WI
AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE
IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS (8"+) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P.
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE 3-6" IN THE KEWEENAW AND 2-4" IF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
WIND POTENTIAL...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL, MAINLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS IS 50-70% OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
50% ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKESHORES. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS, ESPECIALLY IN THE KEWEENAW SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST CLOSELY.
FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD
RESULT IN A FLASH FREEZE WHERE ROADS ARE STILL WET.
THE CLIPPER TRAIN WILL ROLL ON INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT AS SSW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AT THE SURFACE
ARE CONTRASTED WITH WSW WINDS UP TO 60 KT AT 2KFT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE WHILE VEERING WESTERLY, THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR WILL
DROP OUT AS SURFACE WINDS LINE UP MORE WITH THE WINDS ALOFT.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT REMAIN AROUND 15-30 PERCENT, THOUGH
A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY BEFORE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITH
CONFIDENCE IN FZRA/FZDR LOW, HAVE ONLY OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30
GROUP FOR -RASN AT CMX TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
PRECIPITATION, CEILINGS WILL BE OVER 75 PERCENT LIKELY TO FALL TO
MVFR AND 10-20 PERCENT LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR TONIGHT. SOME RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AT IWD AND SAW TO VFR WITH SCT AND LIFTING
CLOUD BASES, THOUGH CMX WILL RETAIN 75+ PERCENT CHANCES TO REMAIN IN
MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
A CLIPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GALES TO THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40KT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. STRONG
PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING GALES UP TO
45KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHTER, LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL GALES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GALES (70% CHANCE) WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE LAKE. AFTER A PERIOD OF SUB-GALE WINDS
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LAKE BRINGING GALES (60-80% CHANCE) TO MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH
POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE GUSTS (30% CHANCE) OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE LAKE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (BELOW 20 KNOTS). THEREAFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING AND WITH POTENTIAL GALES FRIDAY NIGHT
(40% CHANCE FOR GALES, HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF). AS THE LOW
HEADS TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY SATURDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW ON SATURDAY AS WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO
GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS BECOME POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING (40% CHANCE FOR GALES, HIGHEST OVER EAST). FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY WITH EACH OF THE GALE
EVENTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ006-007.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ241-
242-263.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ242>246-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243>248-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ247>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ249.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...BW/GS
MARINE...NL
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