020
FXUS63 KMQT 171731
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ONE HAPPENING AS SOON AS
TONIGHT. STORM FORCE GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY (20% CHANCE), WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BEING SEEN
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK COULD CREATE
TIMES OF MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. SEE ANY
PERTINENT LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFO.
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS, A FLASH FREEZE,
AND/OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD BE DIFFICULT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT GENERALLY CONTINUED TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY BEING FOUND MAINLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL, EXPECT THE HIGHS YESTERDAY (AND TODAY FOR THAT MATTER FOR
SOME AREAS) TO HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND A COLD FRONT OF A LOW LIFTING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DROPPING, WITH THE LOWS THIS MORNING BEING
REALIZED AROUND/TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AND
BECOMING RELEGATED TO JUST THE EASTERN U.P. LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WITH RIDGING
MOVING IN TODAY, EXPECT A RESPITE IN THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
U.P. LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS ONTONAGON, COPPER
HARBOR, AND HOUGHTON AIRPORT GOT TO 56, 53, AND 51 MPH RESPECTIVELY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER ERODES AWAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO MOVE
BACK IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN RISING
TOWARDS 32F, WITH SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPES POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO
THE MID 30S NEAR SUNSET.
AS A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY, EXPECT WARM AIR
ADVECTION, AIDED BY AN 80+ KNOT LLJ (WOW!), TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WHILE
MIXING INTO THIS LLJ LOOKS TO BE PRETTY RESTRICTED GIVEN THAT MOST
CAMS DON'T HAVE THE BEST LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THE NBM
IS BRINGING AROUND A 50% CHANCE THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 45 MPH OR MORE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNSLOPES OF
BARAGA, MARQUETTE, AND ALGER COUNTIES. SHOULD CHANCES FOR THE WINDS
OF 45+ MPH IMPROVE TODAY, A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED FOR
THESE COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. AS FOR THE OTHER PORTIONS OF THE U.P.,
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT, WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MONTREAL
RIVER EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE INCOMING CLIPPER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, WE MAY SEE SOME A WINTRY
MIX OF DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING WITH THIS
WEAKER SHORTWAVE PHASING WITH THE CLIPPER LOOKS TO BRING MOISTURE
OVER US THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. IF WE DO SEE ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIMITED TO A GLAZE AND/OR DUSTING, AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND KEWEENAW. THUS, WE COULD SEE SOME
LIMITED ICING IMPACTS ON THE ROADS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON ANY UNTREATED ROADS, BUT THAT
(THANKFULLY) LOOKS TO BE ABOUT IT IMPACTS-WISE FROM ICING; JUST BE
CAREFUL IF YOU'RE DRIVING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS AND
POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS COULD CREATE AN ACCIDENT.
AS THE AROUND 986MB CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY, WE CAN EXPECT A TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY DRIZZLE/RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST AND KEWEENAW COULD A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOWFALL BY LATE IN THE MORNING (IF THE KEWEENAW
EVEN TRANSITIONS FROM SNOW BEFOREHAND) AS THE CLIPPER PASSES BY AND
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK IN. WHILE THE CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY, WE CAN EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN ACROSS OUR AREA
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH GUSTS DROPPING DOWN CLOSER 20 MPH. INDEED, IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT OF THE CLIPPER LOW BRING A
CESSATION TO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY,
WITH MANY OF THE CAMS HIGHLIGHTING THIS POSSIBILITY (LOWEST CHANCE
OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST). HOWEVER, IF
PRECIPITATION DOES CONTINUE, EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT AS THE DRY LAYER
OF THE CLIPPER INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE
SHORTWAVE BEING PHASED IN. AS THE MAIN CORE OF ARCTIC AIR CYCLES
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOWFALL FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH THIS
INCOMING ARCTIC AIR. THUS, THERE MAY BE SOME BLACK ICE THAT FORMS ON
THE ROADS DUE TO THURSDAY'S ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES INDUCING
MELTING AND PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED BEFORE THE ARCTIC BLAST'S
ARRIVAL. WHILE WE THINK THE SEVERITY OF A FLASH FREEZE IS DECREASING
AS THE FORECAST MODEL TREND HAS THE RAPID TEMPERATURE CHANGE FURTHER
AND FURTHER IN TIME FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, IT'S STILL A
POTENTIAL THREAT WORTH MESSAGING AS IT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
OTHER HAZARDS, COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEAKING OF THE OTHER HAZARDS,
EXPECT THE ROBUST TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY (1/2 PER HOUR OR GREATER SNOWFALL RATES) LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE INITIALLY WET, THE SNOWFALL WILL BECOME RATHER FLUFFY RAPIDLY
AS TEMPERATURES SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER, WITH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS BECOMING RELEGATED TO
THE DGZ. THUS, GIVEN THE HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS OF POTENTIALLY 40 TO
50 MPH AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH WIND BELTS
BECOMING FLUFFY RATHER FAST, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. WITH GUIDANCE NOW CONVERGING ON A TRACK FOR THE SFC
CLIPPER LOW THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER AREAS IN THE NORTH WIND SNOW
BELTS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE THE
TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR SOONER. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH
WIND SNOW BELTS, UP TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE SEEN BEFORE THE
TRANSITION OVER TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL, DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL RANGE
FROM HAZARDOUS TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS OVER THE NORTH WIND SNOW
BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
KEWEENAW AS QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE ROADS SLICK AND VISIBILITIES LOW; THE STRONG WINDS
MAY ALSO MAKE CONTROLLING THE CAR EXTRA DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF GREATLY CHANGING WIND SPEED. THEREFORE, IT MAY BE WISE TO
AVOID TRAVELING IF YOU CAN HELP IT THURSDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
TO DWINDLE AWAY WITH TIME FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES BACK
OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
FLUFFY INCH OR TWO SEEN OVER THE EASTERN U.P. (WHERE THERE IS A
LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR), THE RIDGING LOOKS TO KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS AT LESS THAN AN INCH (IF EVEN THAT) ACROSS
THE REST OF THE U.P.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKING TO PHASE
WITH IT, A FEW INCHES MAY BE REALIZED OVER US AS THE PARENT CLIPPER
LOW MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY
THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY; GREATER ANALYSIS INTO THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE ROBUST CLIPPER LOW IMPACTING US TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE SEEN BEHIND IT INTO SUNDAY, EXPECT THE IMPACTS FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO BE NO MORE THAN NUISANCE. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.P. NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
CLEARING SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHTER SW WINDS. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-35 KNOTS AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WHILE 50-55 KNOTS EXISTS AT 2K FEET. THE
SAME FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE WARM INVERSION ALOFT AND QUESTIONS
ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL PORTION OF THE COLUMN WILL WARM,
PROB30S FOR A MIX OF -FZRASN WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. AFTER 12Z, THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR -SHRASN TO
DEVELOP AT SAW AND CMX, WITH A LOWERING TO IFR EXPECTED AT THOSE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
NORTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING DROP DOWN TO 20
KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY AROUND NOON EST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SKIRTS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO INCREASE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GALES UP
TO 45 KNOTS POTENTIALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT (UP TO AROUND A 70% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST REFS). WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH GALES OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT, SAVE FOR NEAR THE DOWNSLOPES BY WISCONSIN AND
UPPER MICHIGAN, AS MIXING INTO THE LLJ DOESN'T LOOK AS GOOD (ONLY UP
TO AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE WEST HALF). NEVERTHELESS,
WINDS LOOK TO SLACKEN AS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY,
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE CENTER OF
THE LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS
HIGH AS 13 FEET OVER THE EASTERN OPEN LAKE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS; HOWEVER, ONCE THE LOW STARTS PUSHING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE WAVES TO DROP DOWN CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE.
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE CLIPPER LOW DIVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO NORTHERLY GALES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS; SOME STORM
FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD EVEN BE SEEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE (AROUND 20% CHANCE OR LESS). IN ADDITION, THE HIGH
WINDS LOOK TO KICK UP HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING; EXPECT A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
IN THE FUTURE. EXPECT THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS HIGH-
END GALE EVENT TO SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE; A FEW WAVES OVER 20 FT COULD BE SEEN EAST OF THE
KEWEENAW THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THREATS TO DIE DOWN BY
AROUND NOON EST; WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
OR LESS ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THOUGH,
DON'T EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO STAY ALL THAT LONG. ANOTHER CLIPPER
LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOUTHERLY GALES BACK TO LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (UP TO A 50% CHANCE,
HIGHEST EAST). AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING, WE COULD SEE WESTERLY GALES ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE LAKE AS WELL AS A RETURN OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
CONDITIONS (UP TO 40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR GALES). HOWEVER, A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO DROP THE WINDS BACK DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST /3 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ240-241.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ242>246-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ247>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP
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