275
FXUS63 KMQT 180534
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1234 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SETUP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH 2-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME SLICK
SURFACES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH
ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FURTHER ADD TO TRAVEL
HAZARDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND IN AREAS PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
OCCURRING TONIGHT AND THE THURSDAY PM GALES BEING ACCOMPANIED
BY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
GOES-EAST DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY AND METAR REPORTS SHOW LINGERING
LOW CLOUD COVER (BASES AROUND 1.5 KFT) OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND EASTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT SKIES CLEARING OUT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE UP. THE CLEARING IS COURTESY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ALOFT, 500MB FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE FORMER TROUGH WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND THE LATTER WILL BE THE
SOURCE OF SOME WEATHER- RELATED HEADACHES GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK AS A SURFACE 977MB LOW IS ALREADY PRESENT
ON RAP ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
A TEXTBOOK ALBERTA CLIPPER.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY, THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TO A STILL-ROBUST 984 MB. A SOUTHERLY 850MB LLJ AHEAD OF IT
WITH AN LREF MEAN WIND SPEED IN EXCESS OF 70 KT WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CAMS SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS SOON AS 00Z, THOUGH QPF VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND A HUNDREDTH OR TWO, SO WHATEVER SNOW
OR FREEZING PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LOW-IMPACT. SOME QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN ABOUT HOW EFFICIENTLY THAT STRONG LLJ CAN MIX TO THE
SURFACE, BUT CAMS HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS THAT DOWNSLOPE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR (SUCH AS NORTHERN MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE
STRETCH FROM IRONWOOD TO ONTONAGON) AS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
EXCEED 40 MPH. WHILE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE LOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY, ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PRESENT THAT A
FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS, SO TAKE IT EASY
ON THE MORNING COMMUTE IN CASE OF A "SNEAKY" GLAZE OF ICE IN THE
COOL SPOTS.
CAMS DO SHOW SOME DRY SLOT OVER MUCH OF THE UP NEAR 12Z THURSDAY,
THOUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN BY 15Z. AS WINDS RAPIDLY SWING TO
THE NORTH, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FALL HAS TRENDED TO BE IN THE
LATE EVENING INSTEAD OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THIS WILL COME A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW
EFFICIENTLY ANY BLACK ICE FORMATION CAN BE AS THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE GROUND TEMPERATURES GIVEN PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION AS
WELL AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION HAVING A MAJOR
IMPACT ON THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. WHILE THE CORE OF THE LOW IS
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE WINDS WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT (CLOSER TO 20 KT GUSTS), THOUGH THE RAPID PRESSURE RISES IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW (IN EXCESS OF 1 MB/HR) AND THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL HELP TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW-FRICTION AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR 45+ MPH GUSTS. WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING (AROUND A HALF INCH PER HOUR FOR THE SPINE
OF THE KEWEENAW), STRONG WINDS WITH SNOWFALL COULD LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND IF WATER FROM EARLIER DRIZZLE/RAIN DOES FREEZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES, THE
WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME TREE DAMAGE AND/OR LOCALIZED POWER
OUTAGES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS
(OVER AN UNFROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR), SNOW WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED AND
THEN EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT. THE COLD WILL ALSO HELP
THE SNOW TO BE LESS SLUSHY, THOUGH ALSO EASIER TO BLOW/DRIFT
AROUND. ALL TO SAY, THERE'S A COMBINATION OF MANY WEATHER
ELEMENTS THAT WILL PRESENT TRAVEL AND OTHER HAZARDS DESPITE SNOW
TOTALS ONLY 15-30% LIKELY TO EXCEED 6 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE WEST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COUNTIES FOR
THE COMBINATION OF THREATS.
EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
TO DWINDLE AWAY WITH TIME FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES BACK
OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
FLUFFY INCH OR TWO SEEN OVER THE EASTERN U.P. (WHERE THERE IS A
LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR), THE RIDGING LOOKS TO KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS AT LESS THAN AN INCH (IF EVEN THAT) ACROSS
THE REST OF THE U.P.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKING TO PHASE
WITH IT, A FEW INCHES MAY BE REALIZED OVER US AS THE PARENT CLIPPER
LOW MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY
THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, THOUGH GREATER ANALYSIS INTO THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ONCE
WE GET THROUGH THE ROBUST CLIPPER LOW IMPACTING US TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN BEHIND IT INTO SUNDAY, EXPECT THE IMPACTS FROM
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE NO MORE THAN NUISANCE. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.P. NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING; HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ONSET OF WINTRY MIX (-FZRASN) WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THU 10Z.
SO, EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS BY THU 10Z AND FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR BY THU 12Z. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THERE WILL BE
A LLWS THREAT OF 50-55 KTS BELOW 2K FEET AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS NEAR 35 KTS, WEAKENING A BIT TO 25 TO 30
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY. LOOK FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR/LIFR, THOUGH, THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS WINDS AT 20 KT OR BELOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, WITH GALES UP
TO 45 KNOTS POTENTIALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT (40-90% CHANCE). WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
GALES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT, SAVE FOR NEAR THE
NEARSHORES DOWNSLOPE OF THE TERRAIN OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN,
AS MIXING INTO THE LLJ DOESN'T LOOK AS GOOD (ONLY UP TO AROUND A 50%
CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE WEST HALF). NEVERTHELESS, WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN AS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS
13 FEET OVER THE EASTERN OPEN LAKE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THIS HAPPENS WITH THE WAVES FALLING CLOSER TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, EXPECT THE WINDS
TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO NORTHERLY GALES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS; SOME
STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD EVEN BE SEEN OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE (AROUND 20% CHANCE OR LESS). IN ADDITION,
THE HIGH WINDS LOOK TO KICK UP HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS HIGH-END GALE EVENT TO SOAR INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE (AS HIGH
AS 20 FT NORTH OF AU TRAIN). AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, EXPECT THE GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THREATS TO
DIMINISH DOWN BY AROUND NOON EST, WITH WINDS ARE FALLING BELOW 20
KNOTS OR LESS ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
ANY RELIEF IN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVING
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOUTHERLY GALES BACK TO LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (UP TO A 50% CHANCE,
HIGHEST EAST). AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING, WE COULD SEE WESTERLY GALES ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE LAKE AS WELL AS A RETURN OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
CONDITIONS (60+% CHANCE FOR GALES). HOWEVER, A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
LOOKS TO DROP THE WINDS BACK DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>005-
009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>244-
263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240-241.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ242>246-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ247>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...GS/TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...GS/TAP
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