074
FXUS63 KMQT 181810
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER SETUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH 2-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOME SLICK SURFACES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP, LEADING TO LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45-55
MPH ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW WILL
FURTHER ADD TO TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND IN
AREAS PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH-END GALES
TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS BEING SEEN TONIGHT IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED ABOVE FREEZING
THIS MORNING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. ALREADY GETTING INTO
THE LOWER 40S. IN ADDITION, 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
CYCLE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING 984MB CLIPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE
HOLDOUTS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING SEEN IS PARTS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
KEWEENAW. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE CLIMBING THIS
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION, AIDED BY A VIGOROUS LLJ, BRINGS HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE DOWNSLOPES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). GIVEN
THAT THE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED, THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICING THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN NIXED; WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A STOUT DRY LAYER 'EATING
AWAY' ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND, AND WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, EXPECT NO ICING CONCERNS ON THIS
MORNING'S COMMUTE.
AS A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND PHASES WITH THE CLIPPER LOW MOVING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY, EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OF THE
ROBUST CLIPPER LOW. WITH THE BETTER FORCING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA, EXPECT ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS TO A TENTH OR
TWO OF LIQUID TO FALL TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND. CAMS GUIDANCE NOW PRETTY MUCH UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT
OF THE CLIPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COMMA-HEAD COMES OVERHEAD A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS STOUT ARCTIC
AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE U.P. FROM WEST TO
EAST. GIVEN THE WARMER FORECAST AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, THE FLASH FREEZE THREAT HAS ACTUALLY
INCREASED IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 20+F IN ABOUT A 6 HR PERIOD. AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE THE MODERATE TO SOMETIMES
EVEN POTENTIALLY HEAVY (1/2 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE
AT TIMES) SNOWFALL AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ICE UP THE ROADWAYS
TONIGHT. WITH THE SNOWFALL, WHILE INITIALLY WET, BECOMING DRY AND
FLUFFY RATHER RAPIDLY, EXPECT TO SEE SLICK/POTENTIALLY ICY ROADS
WITH QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL; THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST
OVER THE KEWEENAW DOWN TO IRONWOOD AS THE SNOWFALL RATES LOOK
HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, WITH STRONG
WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS,
EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR; THE
BLOWING SNOW LOOKS TO ADD TO THE WINTRY MESS COCKTAIL BY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR MUCH LESS IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE
SPOTS. THE WINDS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ICE & SNOW, COULD ALSO
CREATE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH COULD BE SEEN. SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE LAKESHORE IN MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS GUST UP TO 45 MPH FROM
TIME TO TIME; EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EVERYWHERE ELSE.
OVERALL, IF YOU CAN AVOID TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS TONIGHT, PLEASE DO SO; THE INCOMING WINTER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ROADS SLICK AND THE HIGH WINDS WILL NOT DO YOU
ANY FAVORS IN CONTROLLING YOUR CAR. EXPECT THE ONSET OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL (AND DROP IN TEMPERATURES) AROUND 5 PM EST OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES; AS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST, EXPECT THE
TRANSITION CLOSER TO 7 TO 9 PM EST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THE START TIME FOR THE COUNTIES FROM
MARQUETTE WESTWARD HAVE BEEN DELAYED BY SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE LAST
MINOR HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING: POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR LAKESHORE
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION COULD BE SEEN ALONG THE KEWEENAW AND
ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS STRONG WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 15 TO
20 FT.
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY, EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LOOKING TO HOLD ON LONGER
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN
ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE (1/2 INCH
PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES TO CONTINUE AT TIMES, EVEN AS THE WINDS DIE
DOWN (AND WITH IT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT). THUS, WHILE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO END OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. BY
7 AM EST, THE ONES OVER THE EAST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY.
DON'T EXPECT THE QUIETER WEATHER TO LAST ALL THAT LONG, AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER LOOKING TO HIT US IS EXPECTED TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS A CLIPPER AROUND 980MB LIFTS OFF OF THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN DOWN TO AROUND 992MB
AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WHAT WILL HELP
TO BRING SNOWFALL TO US LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS A SHORTWAVE LOW
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CLIPPER'S COLD FRONT AND THE LIFTING LOW
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA; WE COULD SEE A FEW FLUFFY INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO END OUR WEEKEND.
WHILE WE CAN EXPECT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
AIR FROM THE SOUTH TO PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. THUS, WE MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
SET TO CROSS WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT IS USHERING
IN MOIST CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/RAIN ARE OCCURING AT CMX AND SAW THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IWD HOVERS
AROUND MVFR. TONIGHT, A SHARP SWING FROM S TO NW WINDS OCCURS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EASTWARD MIGRATION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NW, A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IS EXPECTED, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A FLASH FREEZE. WIND GUSTS QUICKLY INCREASE ABOVE 25
KTS, WITH GUSTS AT CMX APPROACHING 40 KTS BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z. SNOW
WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE DROP IN TEMPERATURE,
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM AT TIMES WITH BLOWING SNOW.
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CMX. AS SYSTEM/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL TRANSITIONS TO PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THE
MORNING, CIGS/VIS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TO IFR/MVFR, FIRST AT IWD/SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
AS A 984MB CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY GALES UP
TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE TO LIGHTEN TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH NOON EST AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LAKE. BEHIND
THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LAKE AND BRING NORTHERLY HIGH-END GALES OF 45
KNOTS TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT;
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE SEEN ALSO ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
THIS BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET (HIGHEST IN THE EAST
HALF). AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
WINDS, WAVES, AND FREEZING SPRAY TO DWINDLE AND GO AWAY, WITH THE
WINDS BECOMING 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DON'T EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS TO LAST ALL THAT LONG AS A CLIPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE
FOR GALES ACCORDING TO THE NBM); SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY ALSO BE
SEEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE AS WELL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW PASSES ON SATURDAY, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST TO POTENTIALLY GALES OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS (40% CHANCE FOR 45 KNOT GALES, HIGHEST OVER THE EAST). IN
ADDITION, THINKING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL MAKE A RETURN WITH THE
WESTERLY GALES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE GALES VEER
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS AND FREEZING
SPRAY DWINDLE LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN LATER SUNDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DIGS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>004-
009-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ005>007-085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-240>244-
263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
/3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ240.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ241-242.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ243>245.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ246.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ247.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249>251-267.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ221-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page