526
FXUS63 KMQT 190539
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1239 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE WINTER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT EST, BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO
UNTREATED ROADWAYS BECOMING ICY AND HAZARDOUS.
- THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL
LEAD TO LIMITED VISIBILITY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL UP WHERE
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3-7 INCHES IN THE WEST AND 2-5
INCHES NORTH-CENTRAL BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- HIGH-END GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS (50 KNOTS) ALONG WITH
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH-END GALES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG PACIFIC
JET, ZONAL IN ORIENTATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, DIVING SOUTH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TRANSITIONING INTO A RIDGE IN THE EAST.
VIGOROUS PV ANOMALY IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH AN ATTENDANT 984 MB LOW ANALYZED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. COPIOUS
WARMTH AND MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE,
WITH MILD TEMPS LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. DEWPOINTS IN THIS
RANGE OVER THE SNOWPACK IS RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS OCCUR STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST
AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH IN THE MID-980S. COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP IN ON THE
BACK OF THIS LOW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
FREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES. SO TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT
EVEN WHERE SNOWFALL DOESN'T OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS BY FRIDAY
MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS (THOUGH THIS IS
OFTEN HARD TO PREDICT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS DRYING THINGS OUT AS
WELL). TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5
PM AND MIDNIGHT EST.
AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL, SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN UP
AS WELL, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND THE SYSTEM'S
DEFORMATION REGION. THOUGH THE LATTER WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW, THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHERE GOOD LIFT OCCURS
WITHIN THE DGZ ALOFT, AND THE LAKE-BASED CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL OCCUR
WITHIN THE DGZ AS WELL CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, SO IT SHOULD BE A
PRETTY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCER WITH RATES OF 0.5-1"/HR NOTED AT
TIMES ON THE HREF BETWEEN 00-09Z. THIS, COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 30 MPH INLAND AND 45 MPH ALONG THE SHORELINE AND KEWEENAW,
WILL RESULT IN QUITE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF ICY ROADWAYS AND LIMITED (LOCALLY NEAR-ZERO AT TIMES)
VISIBILITY. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
UPGRADE DESPITE MODEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE, BUT
WAS DECIDED AGAINST GIVEN THAT THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UP (MARQUETTE COUNTY EASTWARD),
THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE, AND THEY WILL HAVE A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT TO
CONTEND WITH, SO IT'S EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
EVENT. FOR THIS REASON, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A QUICK BURST OF SNOW IN
THE LATE EVENING WHEN P-TYPE FLIPS FROM RAIN TO SNOW, THERE MAY BE A
LULL IN THE SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL PLACE
THE BETTER SNOWFALL RATES (0.25-0.5"/HR) MORE TOWARD THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS (30-35 MPH INLAND, UP
TO 45 MPH SHORELINE) AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY CONCERNS. CERTAINLY
EXPECT A DIFFICULT COMMUTE FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FLASH FREEZE CONCERN ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTER
SNOW. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING CWAS, THE REMAINDER OF OUR
CWA WILL BE ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN VERY BRIEFLY. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS
HOT ON ITS HEELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THIS ONE FURTHER NORTH.
FORECAST TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT APPEAR TO BE MORE IN THE 1-4" RANGE,
HIGHEST IN THE EAST. A FEW MORE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OCCURING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR BEING THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORIES. RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO
SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS HAVE BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND VERY STRONG AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS IS CREATING FURTHER BLOWING SNOW/VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH A FLASH FREEZE. THIS WILL HINDER ANY
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. BUT, CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND A 985 MB LOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH-END GALES ARE A CERTAINTY, WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS
TO 50 KT EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE PROBABILITIES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE AROUND 30% FRIDAY
NIGHT, INCREASING TO 60-80% SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 20% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT. A GALE WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IS A EXPECTED AS WELL.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-012>014-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005>007-085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MIZ010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ240>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ241-
242-247.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ246.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248-265.
STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LSZ251-267.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING FOR LMZ221-250.
DISCUSSION...THOMPSON
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...THOMPSON
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