805
FXUS63 KMQT 191726
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1226 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDS OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
TODAY. A COUPLE MORE FLUFFY INCHES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. THIS
MORNING. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORE INFO.
- HIGH-END GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GO AWAY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH-END GALES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT; HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALSO LOOKS TO
REAPPEAR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A QUICK HITTING LOW LOOKS TO BRING 1 TO 4 FLUFFY INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING;
SNOWFALL COULD ACCUMULATE AS QUICKLY AS 1/2 INCH AN HOUR OR
FASTER AT TIMES.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
A RETURN OVER THE KEWEENAW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
NOW THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW HAS
ARRIVED OVER ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
BEING REALIZED OVER THE U.P., WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/2 INCH OR
GREATER PER HOUR BEING REALIZED OVER THE KEWEENAW AND WEST ALONG AND
UP-THE-SLOPE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION, AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH IN THE COLD CORE, WITH
SOME OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM COPPER HARBOR AND MUNISING
SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 36 AND 38 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY, AS OF THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. WITH SNOW RATIOS AT THE NWS MARQUETTE OFFICE BEING
OVER 20:1 AS OF THE 6Z OBSERVATION THIS MORNING, THE VERY FLUFFY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR AND
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE; SOME WEBCAM IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
VSIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT SPOTS FROM TIME-TO-TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM US THIS MORNING, EXPECT
THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO BECOME PURE LAKE EFFECT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST AND KEWEENAW WHERE THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IT (AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING). WHILE WE DO HAVE
850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -19C THIS MORNING, WITH THE LOSS OF THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING, EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO
LIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, SOME MODERATE (1/2 INCH
PER HOUR) OR SO SNOWFALL RATES, AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS, LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST UNTIL
POTENTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OVER THE EAST WILL LAST UNTIL 1 PM EST. IN ADDITION, THE
WIND ADVISORIES OVER MARQUETTE AND ALGER WILL GO UNTIL NOON EST. THE
LAST OF THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LOOKS TO END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AS THE ZENITH OF THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.P.
DON'T EXPECT THE CALMER WEATHER TO LAST ALL THAT LONG AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY SYSTEM SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AREN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
(JUST AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES), GIVEN THAT THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE
OCCURRING JUST BEFORE TO DURING THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND
THE HREF SHOWS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1/2 INCH PER HOUR, WE COULD SEE
SOME QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAKING ROADS SLICK AS PEOPLE ARE
TRAVELING. EXPECT THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE MORNING TO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PHASING
LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARDS THE CLIPPER IN CANADA.
WHILE WE DO GET A COUPLE OF HOURS OF QUIETER WEATHER, LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO PICK UP OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT IS
EXPECTED TO END LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ARRIVES.
EXPECT THE MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
RECEIVE WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF, WHICH IN TURN WILL
ALLOW US TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE HIGHLIGHTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (ACCORDING TO MODELED CLIMATOLOGY) FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER QUICK-
HITTING SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA, EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM AND WET (FROM MELTING) CHRISTMAS AS
HIGHS COULD SOAR CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY (UPPER 30S TO MID
40S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
LAKE CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LEAD MAINLY TO
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH VISIBILITY MAY CONTINUE TO
OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN TO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
(ESPECIALLY AT CMX). A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 00-06Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A ROUND OF SNOW THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH EVENTUAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS
MAY ALSO BRING SOME LLWS, BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH/TIMING. RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT IWD
AND SAW FROM MID-MORNING SATURDAY, BUT IFR LINGERS AT CMX TO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES TO 45 KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS RIDGING
PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION; EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20
KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE LIGHT WINDS DO NOT
LAST ALL THAT LONG, AS A CLIPPER LOW TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHERN
CANADA ROCKIES TODAY AND THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS BACK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OF THE CLIPPER LOW ON SATURDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO
THE WEST AS GALES INCREASE UP TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE; SOME
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE DWINDLING DOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT; THE GALES AND HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO END ACROSS THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS RETURNING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AROUND
MONDAY MORNING, WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF LATE IN THE DAY. BEHIND
A LOW LEAVING THE REGION ON TUESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP
FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ005>007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ162-240>244.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ245>251-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP
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