860
FXUS63 KMQT 200831
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
331 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE U.P EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-MORNING. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING AND EAST
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN U.P, HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS N TO NW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS MORNING'S SNOWFALL AND HIGH WINDS HAS NOW REACHED QUEBEC. THE
ENCROACHING MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL WORK TO EAT AWAY LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM DOWN BELOW 5K FT AND
TAPER OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. DESPITE THE QUIETING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY, THE NEXT ROUND
OF SOMEWHAT IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES TONIGHT AS A DESCENDING
TROUGH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SKIRTS A ~995 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLIPPER LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BEGINNING ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL UP AROUND MIDNIGHT, CONTINUING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT MIDLEVEL DRY LAYER, SO
PRECIP START MAY BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS IF DRY AIR WINS OUT. BY THE
MORNING COMMUTE HOURS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OCCURING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP. IN THE EAST, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY PROVIDE A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL PRODUCTION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT 12Z HREF, WHICH SUGGESTS A 50-
75% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL RATES >0.5"/HR DURING THE 7-10 AM TIMEFRAME.
THE QUICK MOVING CLIPPER DEPARTS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON, LEAVING
BEHIND A LIGHT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE EAST HALF AND LOWEST ALONG THE UP/WI BORDER. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW, CHILLY W TO NW FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY 850 TEMPS SUB
-20C WILL BEGIN TO UPTICK LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE TRADITIONAL W TO
NW WIND SNOWBELTS. THERE, ANOTHER FLUFFY COUPLE OF INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KEWEENAW AND ALONG/NORTH OF M-28 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. COUPLED WITH THE SNOW, THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT, COMMONLY REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. ONCE THE WINDS
VEER TO THE W AND NW, MIXING INTO A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL HELP BRING
DOWN GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW. THUS OPTING TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR KEWEENAW AND N HOUGHTON COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
FALLING SNOW MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE OR LESS!
LOOKING INTO THE COMING WORKWEEK, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND IS AFOOT AS BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE 30S AND EVEN
LOW 40S BY CHRISTMAS. NO PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL STORMS SEEM TO TAKE
AIM AT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT IWD AND CMX
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT, MVFR LAKE CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AT SAW ALL NIGHT. AND, ALL TAF SITES
ARE GOING TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR IN THE SAT 06-09Z TIME
FRAME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. IN
ADDITION, LLWS WILL BE A THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 45 KT WINDS
BELOW 2K FEET AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 35 KTS TODAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING, BUT ANY PREVAILING VFR IS
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY GALES OF 35 KTS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM KICKS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THOUGH THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
VEERING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE, STRONG
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH MIXING INTO THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE,
SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 15-20 FT ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN EAST OF THE KEWEENAW FOR MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 25%
CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS. GALE WARNINGS FOR NEARLY
ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S LAKEWIDE. WINDS BEGIN
TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-240>243-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ244-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ245>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ249>251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW/NL
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