561
FXUS63 KMQT 210017
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
717 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS PERSISTS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING AND EAST WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN U.P BRINGS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MASS CITY TO PAINESDALE. WIND GUSTS UP TO
45-50MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45-50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP 992MB LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ALREADY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN UP. A PROMINENT DRY SLOT IS APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UP (HAVING ALREADY MADE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF), COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SUNNY
SKIES BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF "SYSTEM" SNOW. HOWEVER, CHILLY,
BLUSTERY W TO NW FLOW OVER THE LAKE, INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE APPARENT THROUGH THE DGZ IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE W AND EVENTUALLY NW WIND SNOW BELTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL, AND EASTERN UP. INDEED, LES HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL UP. A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES,
ROUGHLY FROM MASS CITY TO PAINESDALE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL; THE HREF FAVORS
SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.75IN/HR IN THOSE AREAS OF INTEREST,
FALLING OFF AFTER 03Z. WHILE MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
UP IS LOOKING AT SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND 2-4IN BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WE COULD SEE A BULLSEYE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6
INCHES (OR EVEN NEAR 7IN) ACROSS NORTHERN ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN
HOUGHTON COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW KICKS OFF INTO THE EARLY EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN UP, AND WITH THE LONGER FETCH OVER SUPERIOR, STEEP
INVERSION HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 8KFT PER MODEL SOUNDINGS,
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THERE (HREF
SHOWING OCCASIONAL 0.75-1IN/HR RATES FROM 00-12Z). GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR SNOWFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 7IN IN THE NW WIND
SNOWBELTS EAST OF MUNISING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE REALLY PICKING UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD 25-35MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UP, WITH STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO 40-45MPH NEARER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHEST GUSTS,
HOWEVER, WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. AT THE HOUGHTON COUNTY
AIRPORT, 40-50MPH GUSTS HAVE BECOME COMMON, OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING
50MPH. THIS IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW, AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UP
MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN
HOUGHTON COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS KEWEENAW COUNTY.
IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
(A FEW SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE MI/WI BORDER IN THE WEST).
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NEGATIVE TEENS OVER THE WEST,
COLDEST NEAR THE MI/WI BORDER.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDS DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, INTRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF RATHER BENIGN WEATHER THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING
MIDWEEK, THEN MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES BRINGING SPORADIC LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
30S BY MIDWEEK AND HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY,
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER
LOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES INTO NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AT IWD AND SAW, WHILE CMX IS REPORTING GUSTS UP
TO 45 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE UNTIL AFTER SUN 10Z.
BLOWING SNOW AS A RESULT HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY AFFECTING CMX WHERE
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH SUN 06Z.
AT THAT POINT, EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BUT NOT MUCH
BEYOND THAT IN THIS TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, IWD AND SAW ARE
ACTUALLY AT VFR LEVELS, BUT WILL KEEP TEMPOS INSERTED FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN 06Z, THEN PREDOMINANTLY MVFR AFTER THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
IMPACTFUL MARINE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS ARE VEERING OVER TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE, WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES COUPLED
WITH MIXING INTO THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-
45KTS HAVE ALREADY BECOME COMMON, AND SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS TO
50KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STRONGER GALES WILL SPREAD INTO THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS RAMP UP
TO 15-20FT EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NEARLY
ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WORKS ACROSS
THE LAKE; A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, FINALLY FALLING TO AROUND 20KTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAKE BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS
SHIFTING OVER TO THE S TO SW MONDAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 15-
20KTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>243-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY
FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244>251-264>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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