285
FXUS63 KMQT 211135
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ENDS AT
8 AM EST. THEREAFTER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, LIFTING
OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE EAST AND UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
- A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW, UP TO 3 INCHES, IS POSSIBLE (30-50%
CHANCE) ON MONDAY.
- THE NEXT POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
QUEBEC AT 997 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, DISSIPATING LINGERING LES AS
RESULTING WAA AND A DRIER AIRMASS WEAKEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST
WITH UP TO 1" OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST. TEMPS ONLY WARM
INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY
HELP LIFT THE REST OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OVER THE LAKE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES HELP TEMPS FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NEAR 10 TO MID TEENS, COLDEST INTERIOR CENTRAL, BUT
CONTINUED WARMING MEANS LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAA ALONG WITH SOME F-GEN FORCED SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THE UP ON MONDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON PLACEMENT OF F-GEN AND
THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS ROUND, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. IMPACTS LIKELY WILL BE LOW REGARDLESS
AS THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TOTALS UP TO 2-3" WITH THE 25TH
PERCENTILE LESS THAN 0.5". OTHERWISE TEMPS RETURN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. ISOLATED LIGHT LES SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EAST, BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY DROPS OFF WITH A PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DELTA-TS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S. SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH COULD BE SEEN
IN THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (20-40% CHANCE). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
RETURN TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AS A HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES
OVERHEAD.
THE NEXT POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE CHRISTMAS
DAY INTO FRIDAY (30-50% POP). THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REGARDING THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW'S TRACK AND TIMING.
THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIP TIMING, PRECIPITATION
TYPE, AND AMOUNTS. LATEST GEFS/EPS ONLY HAVE 10-40% CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST 1" OF SNOW BY 0Z SATURDAY, BUT INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS HAVE A CORRIDOR OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TRACKING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BASIN. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DECORATE THE REMAINING EXTENDED
FORECAST AS MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BALLOON AND SHORTWAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES.
AT CMX LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. FOR SAW AND
IWD EXPECT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
LINGERING NORTHWEST GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW 30 KTS BY MID MORNING WITH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE AROUND OR BELOW 20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT,
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-12 FT FALL BELOW 4 FT LAKEWIDE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DIMINISHING THREATS, THE GALE AND HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS END THIS MORNING AS PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY SHIFTS WINDS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY SENDS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE, INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-
30 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE GALES TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE (30-50%
CHANCE). RESULTING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6-12 FT ARE LIKELY.
WINDS QUICKLY FALL BACK BELOW 20 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS TO 20-30 KTS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONGER
WINDS IS UNCERTAIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244>251-
264>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ245>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...NL
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