516
FXUS63 KMQT 230518
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE EAST AND 5
INCHES IN THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, AND SINCE JANUARY 2019, WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE UP.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW -15F AND WIND CHILLS NEAR -40F ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT THEIR TIME
OUTSIDE. DO NOT FORGET PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA, ANCHORED BY A DEEP 490 DECAMETER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS HELPING TO USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -30 TO -35C STARTING TO MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE, RADAR SHOWS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WINDS SNOW BELTS FROM THE
KEWEENAW TO THE EASTERN UP. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING IN
THESE AREAS, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS GUSTY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FINE SNOW
CRYSTALS CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE AS AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO THIS
EVENING AND DO NOT RECOVER BACK ABOVE ZERO UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COMMONLY BE AROUND -20 F IN THE WEST
AND NEAR THE WI BORDER, WITH READINGS CLOSER TO -10 FOR THE REST OF
THE UP. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -45 F IN THE WEST
AND -35 IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT OPTED
TO EXTEND THE EXTREME COLD WARNING ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
WIND CHILL VALUES CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH -35 IN THE WEST AND -30 IN
THE CENTRAL AND EAST. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE ZERO. THAT SAID, DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG WARM UPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN CAPPED IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WELL
INTO THE EXTENDED.
REGARDING THE SNOW, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT FINE
SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH TO CONTINUE AS THE DGZ RETREATS BELOW GROUND,
BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH QPF TO STILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 3-5
INCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW AND OTHER ELEVATED TERRAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHER PART OF LUCE COUNTY. BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS
START TO DIMINISH, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTING HEAVIEST
SNOWBANDS ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL NW WIND SNOWBELTS. GIVEN THE
INCREASED ARCTIC AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION, SNOW
CHARACTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FINE POWDER VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
BLOWING, DRIFTING, AND REDUCING VISIBILITY. CMX AND IWD WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VIS <1 SM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF <1/2 SM,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS 30-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER WEST
AT SAW, OCCASIONAL LES SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (HANDLED WITH PROB30
GROUPS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON). SHOULD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FIND
THEMSELVES OVER THE SAW AIRFIELD, VIS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1 TO 1
SM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-35 KT ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE HEADLINES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE AND SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORES AS
WAVES BUILD TO 10-12 FT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE
BY SATURDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT ACCORDINGLY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE POTENTIALLY TICKING BACK UP INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE
ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GALE PROBS CURRENTLY RESIDE AROUND 20-30% OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006-007-085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB
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