143
FXUS63 KMQT 230855
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE EAST AND 4 INCHES IN
THE WEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 9 INCHES IN LUCE COUNTY. BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, AND SINCE JANUARY 2019, WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE UP.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW -15F AND WIND CHILLS OF -30F TO -45F ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTSIDE. DO
NOT FORGET PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHT A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DROPPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF NEAR 1050MB IS DESCENDING INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST! THIS IS USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -34C. IN TANDEM WITH MIXED
LOW LEVEL STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 20-35 MPH, DANGEROUS COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UP THIS MORNING. TEMPS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW, DECREASING MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN WHERE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20F ARE IN PLACE. RESULTING WIND
CHILLS ARE NEAR -30F TO AS LOW AS -45F, COLDEST ALONG THE WI/MI
STATE LINE IN GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WARM
UP TO NEAR 0F IN THE EAST TO -10F IN THE WEST. STEADY PRESSURE RISES
KEEP 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS GOING, HOLDING WIND CHILLS MAINLY BELOW
-20F FOR MOST OF THE UP TODAY. SOME INTERIOR WEST WILL NOT SEE WIND
CHILLS WARM ABOVE -30F! MAINTAINED THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AS IS
AND EXTENDED THE LUCE COUNTY COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO 15Z SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALSO CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FINE SNOWFLAKES YIELDING LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE KEWEENAW,
HOWEVER FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 35+ MPH WITH STEADY VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AFFECTING THE MORNING
AND EVENING COMMUTES TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ON
THE IMPRESSIVE SIDE FOR MOST. UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE WEST AND 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES IN
LUCE COUNTY IS LIKELY WHERE THERE IS MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SINCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE A LONGER FETCH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT, LIKELY DECOUPLING IN THE
INTERIOR WEST. WITH MOISTURE DEPLETED ALREADY THIS EVENING, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW (MAINLY 2 INCHES OR LESS) AND CLOUD
COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE INTERIOR, FAVORING RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE MID
20S WITH WIND CHILLS MAINLY -20F TO -40F.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIFT AWAY FROM UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WARM UP BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. THAT
SAID, WINDS WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT, LIMITING EXTREME
COLD CONCERNS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST CONSISTS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT AS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTING HEAVIEST
SNOWBANDS ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL NW WIND SNOWBELTS. GIVEN THE
INCREASED ARCTIC AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION, SNOW
CHARACTER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FINE POWDER VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
BLOWING, DRIFTING, AND REDUCING VISIBILITY. CMX AND IWD WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VIS <1 SM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF <1/2 SM,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS 30-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER WEST
AT SAW, OCCASIONAL LES SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (HANDLED WITH PROB30
GROUPS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON). SHOULD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FIND
THEMSELVES OVER THE SAW AIRFIELD, VIS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1 TO 1
SM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-35 KT ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE HEADLINES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE AND SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORES AS
WAVES BUILD TO 10-12 FT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE LAKE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE
BY SATURDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT ACCORDINGLY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE POTENTIALLY TICKING BACK UP INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE
ON MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GALE PROBS CURRENTLY RESIDE AROUND 20-30% OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB
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