245
FXUS63 KMQT 231738
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1238 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE EAST AND 2 INCHES
IN THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE
WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, AND SINCE JANUARY 2019, WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF THE UP.
- TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10F AND -25F ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH WIND CHILLS OF -30F TO -40F CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTSIDE. DO NOT
FORGET PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHT A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DROPPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. AT THE
SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF NEAR 1050MB IS DESCENDING INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST! THIS IS USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -34C. IN TANDEM WITH MIXED
LOW LEVEL STRONGER WINDS GUSTING 20-35 MPH, DANGEROUS COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UP THIS MORNING. TEMPS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW, DECREASING MOVING TOWARD
WISCONSIN WHERE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20F ARE IN PLACE. RESULTING WIND
CHILLS ARE NEAR -30F TO AS LOW AS -45F, COLDEST ALONG THE WI/MI
STATE LINE IN GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WARM
UP TO NEAR 0F IN THE EAST TO -10F IN THE WEST. STEADY PRESSURE RISES
KEEP 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS GOING, HOLDING WIND CHILLS MAINLY BELOW
-20F FOR MOST OF THE UP TODAY. SOME INTERIOR WEST WILL NOT SEE WIND
CHILLS WARM ABOVE -30F! MAINTAINED THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AS IS
AND EXTENDED THE LUCE COUNTY COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO 15Z SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALSO CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FINE SNOWFLAKES YIELDING LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE KEWEENAW,
HOWEVER FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 35+ MPH WITH STEADY VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM
WARNING THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AFFECTING THE MORNING
AND EVENING COMMUTES TODAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ON
THE IMPRESSIVE SIDE FOR MOST. UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE WEST AND 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES IN
LUCE COUNTY IS LIKELY WHERE THERE IS MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SINCE LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE A LONGER FETCH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT, LIKELY DECOUPLING IN THE
INTERIOR WEST. WITH MOISTURE DEPLETED ALREADY THIS EVENING, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW (MAINLY 2 INCHES OR LESS) AND CLOUD
COVER WILL DIMINISH IN THE INTERIOR, FAVORING RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE MID
20S WITH WIND CHILLS MAINLY -20F TO -40F.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIFT AWAY FROM UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WARM UP BRIEFLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. THAT
SAID, WINDS WILL BE EVEN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT, LIMITING EXTREME
COLD CONCERNS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST CONSISTS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH TRAILING LAKE EFFECT AS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
UNDER AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE, SAW AND IWD ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING
SKIES WITH SOME BLSN REDUCING VIS TO MVFR AND IFR RESPECTIVELY.
ONGOING NW WIND LAKE EFFECT SHSN CONTINUES TO HAMMER CMX, WHICH
REMAINS AT AND BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. THIS IS 60-75% LIKELY TO
CARRY ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ABOUT 30 PERCENT LIKELY
TONIGHT. AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY, EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES, INCLUDING VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD
AND SAW WHILE CMX IS NEARLY 80 PERCENT LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
IFR TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS ARE PRESENT LAKEWIDE THIS
MORNING WITH GALES UP TO 40 KTS OVER THE EAST. MAINTAINED GALE
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT TO AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. PEAK
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE OCCURING RIGHT NOW BETWEEN 6-8 FT OVER
THE WEST AND 9-13 FT OVER THE EAST. WAVES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE SAME PERIOD, FALLING BELOW 4 FT SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND
BY SATURDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. AS A RESULT OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON IN PLACE AND THE WIND/WAVE FORECAST, ONGOING HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MAINTAINED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS AS IS, FALLING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, HOLDING 20 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD 20 KTS OR LESS UNTIL MONDAY. A PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM INCREASES SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF IT ON
MONDAY. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING BETWEEN 20-30
KTS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. GALE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY RESIDE AROUND
10-30% WITH THAT SYSTEM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...77
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