776
FXUS63 KMQT 232045
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE EAST AND 2 INCHES IN THE
WEST. BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE WILL ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, AND SINCE JANUARY 2019, WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF THE UP.
- TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10F AND -25F ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH WIND CHILLS OF -30F TO -40F CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTSIDE. DO NOT
FORGET PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA, ANCHORED BY A DEEP 500 MB LOW OVER QUEBEC AND
BEING REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MAINTAINS A
FRIGID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION, WITH LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND THE UP. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE REMAINED BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MOST OF THE UP TODAY AS A RESULT, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE WEST
FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE -10F. MEANWHILE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS AS EVIDENCED BY
LATEST RADAR AND GOES DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY, WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO INDICATE NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO AREAS OF THE EASTERN UP EAST OF MUNISING.
EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE KEWEENAW ANOTHER 6 HOURS
THROUGH 1 AM AS LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT WILL KEEP
GOING STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXTENDED THE
WARNING IN THE EAST THROUGH 7 AM USING THE SAME RATIONALE AS
GUIDANCE KEEPS SIMILAR SNOWFALL RATES AND GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LEFT THE ONGOING ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM
ONTONAGON-BARAGA THROUGH 7 PM AS CAMS DEPICT SNOW SHIFTING AWAY FROM
THOSE AREAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE AREAS FOR A
POTENTIAL EXTENSION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LAKE EFFECT TEMPORARILY COMES TO AN END AND WINDS
DIMINISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW -25F ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY BETWEEN -10 AND -20F FOR THE REST OF THE UP. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F ACROSS THE WEST AND -30F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINTAINS THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH 10 AM EST/9 AM CST
SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME
PERIOD FOR LUCE COUNTY, WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE CLOSER TO -25F.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS AGAIN DIP WELL BELOW ZERO, ALBEIT WITH
LESS WINDS.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES NOT OFFER MUCH IF ANY RELIEF FROM THE COLD
AS ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ACROSS THE UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH LAKE EFFECT REDEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THAT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
UNDER AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE, SAW AND IWD ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING
SKIES WITH SOME BLSN REDUCING VIS TO MVFR AND IFR RESPECTIVELY.
ONGOING NW WIND LAKE EFFECT SHSN CONTINUES TO HAMMER CMX, WHICH
REMAINS AT AND BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. THIS IS 60-75% LIKELY TO
CARRY ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ABOUT 30 PERCENT LIKELY
TONIGHT. AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY, EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES, INCLUDING VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD
AND SAW WHILE CMX IS NEARLY 80 PERCENT LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
IFR TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
GALES HAVE DROPPED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
OF MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 20-25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE BELOW 4
FT IN THE WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN IN THE EAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FRIGID AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 20-30
KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSING THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 20-30 KT BEHIND THAT SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GALE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO RESIDE AROUND 10-30% DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>248-264-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...CB
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