796
FXUS63 KMQT 240926
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOSTLY ENDS THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-3 INCHES, HIGHEST EAST NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
- DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10F AND -30F AND WIND CHILLS MAINLY
BETWEEN -25F TO -40F.
- COLD CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10F TO -25F WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-30F.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. DON'T FORGET ABOUT PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS AS GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
ANALYSIS STILL INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING A GREAT PORTION OF
NORTH AMERICA. THE CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED TO NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR WITH A WEAK/BRIEF RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A MULTITUDE OF
EMBEDDED WAVES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. BENEATH IT A DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES THE 1043MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AS
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPS OF -24C TO -25C AND PWATS OF
~0.05", BOTH BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
WEST, RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
-10 TO -20 SO FAR THIS MORNING, YIELDING WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -40.
MAINTAINED EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THROUGH 10 AM EST AS IMPROVEMENT
HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID MORNING AND ADDITIONAL COOLING DOWN TO -30 IS
EXPECTED INTERIOR WEST.
GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A
NEAR SURFACE DGZ AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5KFT. WITH THE DRIER
SNOW TYPE, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED (UP TO 3
INCHES), ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH AND SHIFTS LOW
LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS
EVENTUALLY LIFTS SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE UP. THE PRIMARY FOCUS WAS ON
LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. DOWNGRADED WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES OUT UNTIL 10 AM EST. DROPPED NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS IMPACTS PRIMARILY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LAYERS WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE. OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON SAVE FOR JUST BELOW 0 FAR WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE, DRIER AIR, AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. FORECASTED CONDITIONS WALK THE LINE WITH
NEEDING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AS WINDS BEING NEAR CALM PREVENT
CONCERNING WIND CHILLS FOR MANY, BUT INTERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -
25 ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN
WARM UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO LOW TEENS EAST. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WEAKENS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. LES 12 HOUR TOTALS OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIRMASS BRINGS A BIGGER DGZ PRESENCE, RAISING SLRS A BIT AND
PRESENTING LESSER VISIBILITY CONCERNS.
LES LIFTS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
UNIMPRESSIVE, SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW UP TO 0.5" IS POSSIBLE
(~30% CHANCE) WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS.
TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS A MID LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE
KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTENT OVER THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT
QUICKLY FALLS APART NEXT WEEK REGARDING TIMING OR TRACK OF ANY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEMS, BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
PERSIST (5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
TO MID TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR REMAINS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR CMX WHERE WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PERSIST. THERE, VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BOUNCED BETWEEN 3 AND
1/4 SM. EXPECT THESE BOUNCING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS LES SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR
VIS/CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT CMX AS THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS PUSHES
NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW, HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT KICKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK TO THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS,
REINTRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS THIS MORNING BACK SOUTHWEST TODAY,
MAINLY BECOMING 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
OVER THE EAST ENDS THIS MORNING. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
BACK WEST FOR MONDAY, INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT, HOLDING 20-30 KTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
FORECAST REFLECTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE FAVORED INTO
MID/LATE NEXT WEEK, GALE PROBABILITIES REMAIN MAINLY 15% OR LESS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003-006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...77
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