737
FXUS63 KMQT 250031
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10F TO -25F WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30F.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT
THEIR TIME OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DON'T
FORGET ABOUT PETS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS MAINLY ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WHILE BROAD TROUGHING IS ANALYZED OVER THE PLAINS,
ANCHORED BY MORE SHORTWAVE ACTION TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE
SURFACE, SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
UP, AND WITH WIND SHIFTING OVER TO THE SW, EVEN THE KEWEENAW HAS
BEEN ABLE TO SEE SUNNY SKIES RETURN AS LES HAS LIFTED OFFSHORE. IN
SPITE OF THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ONLY PEAKING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HIGH PRESSURE, DRIER AIR, AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. FORECASTED CONDITIONS WALK THE
LINE WITH NEEDING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AS WINDS BEING NEAR CALM
PREVENT CONCERNING WIND CHILLS FOR MANY, BUT INTERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN -
10 AND -25 ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS
LARGELY AROUND -20 TO -25F. STILL, WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY
SEEING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30F, DID OPT TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP (EXCLUDING THE KEWEENAW). TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO AROUND 10F
EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AS THE MUCH-ADVERTISED WINTER STORM MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY EVENING. LES 12 HOUR TOTALS OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS BRINGS A BIGGER
DGZ PRESENCE, RAISING SLRS A BIT AND PRESENTING LESSER VISIBILITY
CONCERNS.
LES LIFTS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
UNIMPRESSIVE, SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW UP TO 0.5" IS POSSIBLE
(~30% CHANCE) WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS.
TRAILING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS A
MID LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTENT OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE US SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL PASSING CLIPPERS,
THOUGH GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT STRUGGLES TO AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF ANY ONE WAVE. MEANWHILE, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK (5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL). HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO MID TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ARE FORECAST, THEN TEMPERATURES START TO TREND TOWARDS
MORE SEASONAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR WILL BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY AT IWD AND SAW AND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CMX WILL ALSO BE AT VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS TOMORROW
MORNING AT CMX, EXPECT DETERIORATION TO MVFR BY SUN 14Z WITH
PROB30S FOR IFR/LIFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AROUND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW COME IN AT AROUND 15-20KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, THEN VEER NORTHWEST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO
15-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK WEST FOR MONDAY, INCREASING
TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING, HOLDING 20-30 KTS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FORECAST REFLECTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE
FAVORED INTO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK, GALE PROBABILITIES REMAIN MAINLY
15% OR LESS. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002>005-009>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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