958
FXUS63 KMQT 250819
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -30S, AND SOME SPOTTY
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO THE -40S ARE BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. STAY
BUNDLED UP IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE!
- WHILE EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S TO
POTENTIALLY -30S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TODAY ACROSS THE NW
WIND SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER, SOME BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE SEEN EAST OF MARQUETTE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- LAKE EFFECT BECOMES WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE MID WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE LOWS CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING (AS CAN BE
VIEWED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY) AND LOCAL OBSERVING STATIONS SHOWING
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN, ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE -20S WITH SOME SPOTS
EVEN GETTING TO AROUND -30F. WITH SOME SPOTS ALSO GETTING A LIGHT
BREEZE THIS MORNING (UP TO A FEW MPH), OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE ALSO
PICKED UP WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN INTO THE -30S IN SPOTS; I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AND AM ACTUALLY EXPECTING A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
U.P. TO HAVE WIND CHILL MINS DIP INTO THE -40S BEFORE THE SUN WARMS
US UP LATER TODAY. WHILE I WAS TEMPTED TO UPGRADE THE AREA TO AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THIS MORNING, DECIDED AGAINST IT AS I'M
THINKING THE SOMEWHAT CALM WINDS BEFORE DAWN WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
THE WIND CHILLS BELOW -30F IN THE EAST AND -35F IN THE WEST TO JUST
A FEW SPOTS HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT (BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING), DECIDED TO
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND EXTENDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. EXTENDED THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALGER,
DELTA, SCHOOLCRAFT, AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS AT LEAST
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S HAVE BEEN SEEN/ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, DROPPING-OFF KEWEENAW AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AFTER THIS
MORNING AS LOWS/WIND CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE -20F TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE COLD WEATHER THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING THE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS
DOWN IN THE MID-SOUTH TODAY LIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. WHILE DELTA-TS IN THE LOWER 20S WILL HELP EMPOWER LAKE
EFFECT DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIFTING THROUGH THE
ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LOOKS TO LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES (I.E.
KEEPING DRIER AIR OVER US, MEANING THAT LAKE SUPERIOR HAS TO DO MORE
WORK IN MODIFYING THE AIR OVERHEAD VIA LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN ORDER
TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS). THUS, GENERALLY THINKING WE WILL ONLY SEE
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW FLUFFY SNOWFALL TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
WESTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE LAKE EFFECT LEAVES UPPER MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA.
HOWEVER, RECENT CAMS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THAT A MESOLOW COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAKE LANDFALL EAST
OF MARQUETTE (THINKING MAINLY IN ALGER COUNTY) SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SNOWBANDS OF THIS MESOLOW COULD
BRING SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AS WELL AS
STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES VIA BLOWING
SNOW. SHOULD THIS BE REALIZED, A SHORT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE HOISTED UP FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF
MARQUETTE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS TRAVEL COULD BECOME
VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES (POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS?).
MOVING TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK, WHILE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD EITHER
AS HIGHS LOOK TO GENERALLY GET INTO THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND LOWS LOOK TO ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PICKING UP
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS A SHORTWAVE LOW DROPPING DOWN
FROM MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE LOWS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THUS, WHILE WE MAY
HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE FAIRLY
CONTINUOUS AS DELTA-TS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID-20S
C. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE (NAMELY THE CANADIAN SUITE) HAS
A LONG-LIVED NORTH TO POTENTIALLY EVEN NORTHEAST-WIND LAKE EFFECT
EVENT OCCURRING FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TO
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING; AN INVERTED TROUGH COULD TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK, CAUSING NORTH TO RARE
NORTHEAST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION, BUT EVEN IF THIS OCCURS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
LIGHT TO AT MOST MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND SNOW BELTS FROM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. WE LOOK TO FINALLY HAVE
A NOTICEABLE BREAK FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS WITH IT MUCH MORE NORMAL
TO POTENTIALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AIR OVER US; WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVEN APPROACH 30F COME THE SATURDAY TIME PERIOD FOR
A HIGH. HOWEVER, DON'T EXPECT THE NICER WEATHER TO LAST ALL THAT
LONG, AS LOOKING TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND MORE
ARCTIC AIR IS LOOKING TO CYCLE DOWN INTO OUR NECK-OF-THE-WOODS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR WILL BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY AT IWD AND SAW EARLY THIS
MORNING. CMX, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER SUN 10Z AS
WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS. EXPECT DETERIORATION TO IFR AT CMX BY
SUN 14Z WITH PROB30S FOR LIFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AT CMX AROUND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SAW WILL REMAIN AT VFR FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE IWD COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW COME IN AT AROUND 15-20KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, THEN VEER NORTHWEST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO
15-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK WEST FOR MONDAY, INCREASING
TO 20-30 KTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS AROUND A 15-20% CHANCE FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE.
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING, HOLDING 20-30 KTS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FORECAST REFLECTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE
FAVORED INTO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK, GALE PROBABILITIES REMAIN MAINLY
15% OR LESS. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
014-085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ002>006-009>013-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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