949
FXUS63 KMQT 251740
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S TO POTENTIALLY -30S ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP. STAY BUNDLED UP IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE!
- GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS TODAY ACROSS THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER, SOME BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES
COULD BE SEEN EAST OF MARQUETTE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT BECOMES WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN MID WEEK AS MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING (AS CAN BE
VIEWED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY) AND LOCAL OBSERVING STATIONS SHOWING
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN, ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE -20S WITH SOME SPOTS
EVEN GETTING TO AROUND -30F. WITH SOME SPOTS ALSO GETTING A LIGHT
BREEZE THIS MORNING (UP TO A FEW MPH), OBSERVING PLATFORMS HAVE ALSO
PICKED UP WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN INTO THE -30S IN SPOTS; I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AND AM ACTUALLY EXPECTING A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
U.P. TO HAVE WIND CHILL MINS DIP INTO THE -40S BEFORE THE SUN WARMS
US UP LATER TODAY. WHILE I WAS TEMPTED TO UPGRADE THE AREA TO AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THIS MORNING, DECIDED AGAINST IT AS I'M
THINKING THE SOMEWHAT CALM WINDS BEFORE DAWN WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
THE WIND CHILLS BELOW -30F IN THE EAST AND -35F IN THE WEST TO JUST
A FEW SPOTS HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT (BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING), DECIDED TO
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND EXTENDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. EXTENDED THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALGER,
DELTA, SCHOOLCRAFT, AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES AS AT LEAST
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S HAVE BEEN SEEN/ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, DROPPING-OFF KEWEENAW AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AFTER THIS
MORNING AS LOWS/WIND CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE -20F TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE COLD WEATHER THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING THE WINTER WEATHER PROBLEMS
DOWN IN THE MID-SOUTH TODAY LIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. WHILE DELTA-TS IN THE LOWER 20S WILL HELP EMPOWER LAKE
EFFECT DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIFTING THROUGH THE
ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LOOKS TO LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES (I.E.
KEEPING DRIER AIR OVER US, MEANING THAT LAKE SUPERIOR HAS TO DO MORE
WORK IN MODIFYING THE AIR OVERHEAD VIA LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN ORDER
TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS). THUS, GENERALLY THINKING WE WILL ONLY SEE
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW FLUFFY SNOWFALL TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
WESTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND THE LAKE EFFECT LEAVES UPPER MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA.
HOWEVER, RECENT CAMS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THAT A MESOLOW COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAKE LANDFALL EAST
OF MARQUETTE (THINKING MAINLY IN ALGER COUNTY) SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SNOWBANDS OF THIS MESOLOW COULD
BRING SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AS WELL AS
STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES VIA BLOWING
SNOW. SHOULD THIS BE REALIZED, A SHORT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE HOISTED UP FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF
MARQUETTE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS TRAVEL COULD BECOME
VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES (POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN SPOTS?).
MOVING TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK, WHILE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD EITHER
AS HIGHS LOOK TO GENERALLY GET INTO THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND LOWS LOOK TO ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PICKING UP
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS A SHORTWAVE LOW DROPPING DOWN
FROM MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE LOWS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THUS, WHILE WE MAY
HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE FAIRLY
CONTINUOUS AS DELTA-TS ARE LOOKING TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID-20S
C. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE (NAMELY THE CANADIAN SUITE) HAS
A LONG-LIVED NORTH TO POTENTIALLY EVEN NORTHEAST-WIND LAKE EFFECT
EVENT OCCURRING FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TO
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING; AN INVERTED TROUGH COULD TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK, CAUSING NORTH TO RARE
NORTHEAST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION, BUT EVEN IF THIS OCCURS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
LIGHT TO AT MOST MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND SNOW BELTS FROM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. WE LOOK TO FINALLY HAVE
A NOTICEABLE BREAK FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS WITH IT MUCH MORE NORMAL
TO POTENTIALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AIR OVER US; WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE EVEN APPROACH 30F COME THE SATURDAY TIME PERIOD FOR
A HIGH. HOWEVER, DON'T EXPECT THE NICER WEATHER TO LAST ALL THAT
LONG, AS LOOKING TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND MORE
ARCTIC AIR IS LOOKING TO CYCLE DOWN INTO OUR NECK-OF-THE-WOODS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT IWD AND SAW WHILE APPROACHING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND -SHSN ARE CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX. AS WINDS TURN
TO THE WNW AND NW, SAW SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND CHANCES OF MVFR
CLOUDS 40 PERCENT OR LESS (HIGHEST AROUND 21Z TODAY). THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE KIWD TERMINAL, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY (60-80%)
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER
UP TO 30 PERCENT. THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL BE STRONGEST AT CMX,
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY (20% OR LESS) THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MVFR WILL BE THE PRIMARY CATEGORY, THOUGH MULTIPLE PERIODS
OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO 40 PERCENT FOR ANY
GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 23Z AND 14Z). CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE W AND SW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE AS A WEAK DRY, SOMEWHAT DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH IT, EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY RETURN TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE CONTINUING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING EVEN AS A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW
APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING
SHORTWAVE, EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH LOW-END GALES
BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS (UP TO A 60% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z RUN OF THE REFS).
WITH THE POTENTIAL GALES RETURNING, WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A RETURN OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WEST HALF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE; AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THE POTENTIAL LOW-END GALE THREAT LOOKS TO END OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE BY MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY) TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK; THE WINDS MAY EVEN BECOME NORTH AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
NORTHEASTERLY AS WE GO FROM THE MIDDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO CYCLE OVER US AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST; CURRENTLY, WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID-20 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK/THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO DROP WINDS DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AGAIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ002>006-009>013-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY
TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>244-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP
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