202
FXUS63 KMQT 260035
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
735 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S TO POTENTIALLY -30S ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP. STAY BUNDLED UP IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE!
- GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW RETURNS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER, SOME BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES COULD BE SEEN EAST OF MARQUETTE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. LAKE EFFECT BECOMES WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN MID WEEK AS MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPANNING MUCH OF CANADA FROM THE LABRADOR SEA TO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS PLACES UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20 TO -25C RANGE SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR THE EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
WILL SPUR A FRESH ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS DELTA-TS CLIMB INTO THE
20S, BUT STILL THINKING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A GENERAL 1-3
INCHES OF FINE CRYSTALS IN THE KEWEENAW AND THE EAST AS PROFILES
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE DGZ CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR OR BELOW
THE GROUND. SOME OF THE CAMS DO NOTABLY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MESOLOW
COMING ASHORE IN THE VICINITY OF ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING,
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE OR SPS THIS
EVENING SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO FRUITION. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THUS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS CHILLS DROP TO AROUND -30F
IN THE WESTERN UP AND -25F IN THE CENTRAL UP TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FARTHER EAST AND INTO
THE KEWEENAW, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THESE AREAS TO REMAIN JUST OUT OF
THE -20F WIND CHILL THRESHOLD.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW DROPPING OUR OF MANITOBA AND
CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ONLY
PROVIDE A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THE KEWEENAW COULD
PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND A PARENT UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH HUDSON BAY, BUT DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNALS FOR PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IN ANY ONE PERIOD AT
THIS TIME. AS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS EACH DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE
LAKESHORES EACH NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 732 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT SAW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER WNW
WINDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE THOUGH,
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW HAVE IMPACTED IWD AND CMX AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
REMAIN AT CMX WHERE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR COULD BE AS EARLY AS MON 12Z AT
IWD, BUT DO NOT EXPECT CMX TO IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR IN THIS TAF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS AT
CMX EARLY TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 12 KTS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AT SAW LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS A WEAK
1025 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE,
YIELDING 25-30 KT GUSTS AND SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THE NEARSHORES
WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW CROSSING THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S
PACKAGE. HOWEVER, OPTED TO DROP THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE ZONES ALONG
THE KEWEENAW AND WESTERN UP FROM A GALE WATCH TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO STAY CLOSER TO 25-30 KT CLOSER TO
SHORE. EITHER WAY, INCREASED WINDS WILL INTRODUCE RENEWED HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY.
THESE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN. EXPECT 20-30 KT BREEZES OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN
THE WEEK. GALE PROBS GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BEYOND MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ002>006-009>013-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TO 10 PM
EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY
TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>244-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB
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