459
FXUS63 KMQT 261139
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
639 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S TO POTENTIALLY
-30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP. STAY BUNDLED UP IF YOU
HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE!
- LAKE EFFECT BECOMES WESTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE (1/2
INCH PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS THIS MORNING (AS SEEN ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY) BECOME WESTERLY LATER BEFORE LIFTING AWAY FROM
UPPER MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW APPROACHES
FROM MANITOBA TODAY. WITH THE AIR REMAINING DRY (EVEN WITH DELTA-TS
IN THE 20S C), NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SNOW BELTS TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE
EFFECT, HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY COOLING DOWN INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS AS OF 2 AM EST. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS BRINGING WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S TO AROUND NEGATIVE 30F IN THE
CENTRAL AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, FROSTBITE COULD OCCUR IN AS
LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO -20F IN THE KEWEENAW AND -25F IN GOGEBIC COUNTY TUESDAY
MORNING, GIVEN THAT WE'VE BEEN DANGEROUSLY COLD THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS/MORNINGS AND IT'S VERY MARGINAL FOR JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS,
NO ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED UP FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME.
AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO
RETURN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WHILE MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE BEING
FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED, WE COULD SEE A FEW INCHES FALL FROM THE
KEWEENAW DOWN TO THE PORKIES AND FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD; WE
MAY EVEN SEE MODERATE (1/2 INCH PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE
SUPERIOR LAKESHORE AS MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS COLDER
THAN THE DGZ. HOWEVER, WITH SFC TEMPERATURES NOW BEING WARM ENOUGH
TO BE IN THE DGZ, THINKING WE WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT FLUFFIER SNOWFALL
THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS; THUS, EXPECTING THE
SLRS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MID-TEENS:1. THEREFORE, WHILE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONFIDENCE BEING A LITTLE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE WE MAY SEE LOW-END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS DUE TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS;
THUS, IF YOU NEED TO DRIVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BE SURE TO
TAKE IT SLOW IF GOING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT A MESOLOW OVER THE EAST BRINGING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
EVEN HEAVY (1+ INCH PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES BY THE MID-WEEK BEFORE
THE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION AND CREATES AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK, WITH HIGHS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY BEING IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS
BEING IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO. THE BIGGEST X-
FACTOR FOR THE LAKE EFFECT THIS WEEK WILL BE THE GROWING ICE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOULD ICE GROWTH BE GREATER THAN PREDICTED, WE COULD
SEE MUCH LESS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, AND SNOWFALL WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LATEST LAKE ANALYSIS
SHOWED ICE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE. HOWEVER,
SHOULD THE STRONGER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HINDER LAKE ICE
DEVELOPMENT (EVEN DESPITE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES), THEN WE
COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
THIS MAY BE EXASPERATED BY BREAKS IN THE ICE, WHICH IN TURN COULD
CREATE 'STREAMS' WHERE LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS OCCURRING IN THE OPEN
AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE (AIDED BY ICE-COVERED AREAS
SURROUNDING THE OPEN WATERS); SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WE COULD SEE
STRONGER LAKE EFFECT BANDS, BUT LESS COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED. AGAIN
THOUGH, CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE
EXTENT OF THE ICE DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEK IS AN
UNKNOWN VARIABLE. SPEAKING ABOUT OF WHICH, THE STRONGER WINDS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MOST OF THIS WORK-WEEK SHOULD BRING SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE; DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SOME SPOTS BY LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK.
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY TOO AS REMNANT TROUGHING HANGS
AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WAA BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EVENTUALLY,
THE HIGH WINS OUT AND BRINGS DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH IT FOR THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S BY THIS
WEEKEND AS LOWS ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO
TEENS; WE MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD AND SAW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT
CMX LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF IFR VISBY THROUGH MID-MORNING, THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
THE U.P THIS EVENING, LASTING ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS BAND
PUSHES THOUGH AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AT CMX,
CONTINUING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THERE. AT IWD MAINLY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE IFR VISBY AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN AROUND MORNING. FOR SAW CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LOW
APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA, EVENTUALLY BECOMING GALES OF 35 TO
POTENTIALLY EVEN 40 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN HALF AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TOO. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE LAKE TONIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND IT; A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WHERE THERE IS UP TO A 20% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES TO 35 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO THE REFS.
EXPECT THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK AS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW ON
THURSDAY. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMNANT TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST EVENTUALLY WINS AND CALMS THE WINDS DOWN TO
20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ002>006-009>013-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>244-263-
264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page