505
FXUS63 KMQT 270029
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK-WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE (1/2 INCH PER
HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE (40-50% CHANCE).
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS/CANADA. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A WEAK/BRIEF RIDGE OVERTOP THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM IS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, A
SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW OVER THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO PROVINCE LINE.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVES WAY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHEAST SHORES
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SENDS A LIGHT
ROUND OF SNOW (WIDESPREAD TRACE TO 0.3 INCHES OF SNOW) FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE UP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. INVERSION HEIGHTS OF
~6KFT, STRONG DELTA-TS, AND A BETTER (ALTHOUGH SHALLOW AND AT THE
SURFACE) DGZ WILL YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES DESPITE
UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE. 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS BY TUESDAY EVENING, HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM
THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS UP THROUGH THE KEWEENAW AS WELL AS THE AREA
EAST OF MUNISING AND NORTH OF M-28. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30
MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COULD ALSO YIELD SOME BLOWING SNOW,
PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AND
BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
TUESDAY COMMUTES IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE, A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
GRADUALLY SPINS SHORTWAVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS IT DESCENDS SOUTH OVER ONTARIO. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT THE NOW ELONGATED WAVE FINALLY PRESSES SOUTH OVER THE UP. THE
COLD AIRMASS AND REINFORCING SHORTWAVES CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS THIS
WORK WEEK. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS (5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL)
ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THIS PATTERN; HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
TO TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0F. THIS COLD
AIR COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH ICE GROWTH OCCURS.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN
INTERRUPTS THIS PATTERN, BRINGING A WARM UP AND END TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVER THE UP. HOW LONG THIS BREAK LASTS IS UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE
QUICKLY FALLS APART. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO
RETURN TO THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTER THAT, EXPECT FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR AT BOTH CMX AND
IWD THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSIFIES.
ELSEWHERE, AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT, EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, 25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS WILL BE CONSISTENT AT IWD AND CMX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
WILL ONLY CARRY A TEMPO FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT SAW EARLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPTICK TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT GALES BRIEFLY OVER THE WEST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE EAST AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT MAINTAINING
20-30 KTS LAKEWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND A
COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD. A FEW NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY (20-40% CHANCE). EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-12FT AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS CONTINUE LAKEWIDE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
AS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST UP TO 20-25 KTS. THIS BECOMES
FOCUSED OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE LATE WEEK AS WINDS VEER NORTH
AND WINDS SLACKEN OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND CALMS CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AS WINDS DROP TO 20 KTS OR LESS
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ENDS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...77
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