269
FXUS63 KMQT 271718
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1218 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND MODERATE (1/2 INCH PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO 30% CHANCE), INCLUDING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS BEING REALIZED OVER
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE (1/2 INCH PER HOUR) TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY (1 INCH OR MORE
PER HOUR) SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THUS FAR AS THE SHORTWAVE LOW RESPONSIBLE CONTINUES THROUGH EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE ROTATING TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE
SEAWAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY LIMITED, ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE LATENT
HEAT RELEASE FROM THE VERY COLD AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS LOOKING TO
BRING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 OR
SO INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW BETWEEN ROCKLAND AND
HOUGHTON. WHILE WE CAN EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
WEST TODAY, WITH THE MODERATE SNOWFALL BEING FAIRLY LOCALIZED (I.E.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH PER HOUR OR
LESS), NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW
OR ONTONAGON COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH THE LONGER FETCH AND
SOME EXTRA CONVERGENCE INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT, THINKING MODERATE (1/2 INCH PER HOUR)
SNOWFALL RATES ARE A LOT MORE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS (UP TO 30% CHANCE FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN NOW AND
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY); EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER (UP TO A 10% CHANCE). THUS,
AROUND 3 TO 8 INCHES OF FLUFFY-ISH SNOWFALL COULD BE SEEN EAST OF
MUNISING AND NORTH OF M-28 BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TAKING THE SNOWFALL RATES INTO ACCOUNT, AS WELL AS THE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, DECIDED TO HOIST
UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A MESOLOW POTENTIALLY FORMING
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY PLAUSIBLY CONTINUING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY
INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS.
EXPECT THE FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR THIS WEEK:
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS TO MID-TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES RETURN TO MARQUETTE COUNTY AROUND THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD ONCE THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
COMES INTO PLAY FOR THE AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE (NEGAUNEE,
ISHPEMING, GWINN, ETC). HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
EVENTUALLY WIN-OUT BY SATURDAY, ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING,
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BEING IN THE 20S AND LOWS ONLY BEING IN THE SINGLE
POSITIVE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE A
SHORTWAVE BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL BACK OVER US EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT STILL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
KIWD IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR FOR CEILINGS AND IFR FOR VIS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS, BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY. CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING. KCMX CAN EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS AND BLOWING SNOW. KSAW IS JUST ON
THE EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO 25KTS, SO A PROB30 GROUP WAS
INCLUDED FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE, KSAW CAN EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS LIGHTEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY, WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS EXPECTED (50-60% CHANCE) THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL. WINDS SLACKEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, EXPECT THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO SLOWLY DWINDLE
ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL GOING AWAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS REMNANT
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-
WEEK, EXPECT THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND A
RETURN OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE THIS
WEEKEND, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ240>244-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP
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