122
FXUS63 KMQT 272100
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- THIS AFTERNOON, PERIODIC WHITEOUTS FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO HALF
MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SNOW AND WINDS
LIGHTEN.
- AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS PLACE
UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM. A
CLOSED LOW IS OBSERVED WELL TO THE NORTH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE
IS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE WEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING IN THE WEST AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -22C, SUPPORTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS VISIBLE ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. PERIODIC WHITEOUTS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN UP DUE TO DRY, FINER SNOW
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE COPPER COUNTRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF,
BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WAA LOWERS DELTA-TS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEAKEN AND
LIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS TONIGHT. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENING AS WELL, BLOWING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS WELL, IMPROVING TRAVEL CONDITIONS POST EVENING COMMUTE.
THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MID-WEEK,
BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT PRESSES SOUTH OVER
THE UP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD, EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, RE-INVIGORATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER 850MB TEMPS OF -23C TO -25C. THIS IS COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL F-GEN OVER THE EAST, AND SUPPORT FROM THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT UPPER LEVEL JET. WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR MOVING FURTHER INLAND, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE UP (LOWEST CHANCES SOUTH-
CENTRAL BETWEEN 10-20%). THE MAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUSED TO
THE USUAL NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELT AREAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST WILL FAVOR A
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP TO 12 INCHES SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF
GRAND MARAIS, BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN YET. OPTED TO
CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THERE AS MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR AND ADDITIONAL BLOWING SNOW
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTES.
SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE 0.5 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE WEST, HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF M-26 WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST,
MAINLY NORTH OF M-28 AND EAST OF MUNISING. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, A WINTER STORM WARNING COULD BE WARRANTED FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITION AND HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE AMOUNTS IN THE
WEST WILL BE LESSER, SIMILAR VISIBILITY CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS BY THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT IS LOW AS
MOVING ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ALSO THERE REMAINS SOME WIGGLE ROOM ON SHORTWAVES TIMING/TRACK.
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND WAA THIS WEEKEND
BRING A WARM UP AND BREAK FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS BACK
IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS BREAK IN PRECIP WON'T LAST LONG AS MORE SHORTWAVES
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
KIWD IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR FOR CEILINGS AND IFR FOR VIS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS, BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY. CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT TO RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING. KCMX CAN EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS AND BLOWING SNOW. KSAW IS JUST ON
THE EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO 25KTS, SO A PROB30 GROUP WAS
INCLUDED FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE, KSAW CAN EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS LIGHTEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY BECOMING
15-25 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
CONTINUES LAKEWIDE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENDING OVER THE
WEST IN THE MORNING AND HOLDING ON IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS FOR FRIDAY; HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONGER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND RETURNS WINDS TO 20 KTS OR LESS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>004-006-007-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ240>244-263-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...77
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