863
FXUS63 KMQT 281133
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
633 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL (AS WELL AS SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW) IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN U.P. FROM
MUNISING EASTWARD NORTH OF M-28 TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEST TODAY.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70%+) ON THE OCCURRENCE OF AT LEAST
ONE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF SAID BAND(S).
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. EVEN
RIGHT NOW (I.E. EARLY THIS MORNING), LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS BEING REALIZED OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS, EVEN AS WINDS SLACKEN AND BLOWING SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WEAKENS WITH TIME TODAY. EVEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS BEING
REALIZED BY AND JUST SOUTH OF GRAND MARAIS, MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE MQT AND CANADIAN RADAR BY THE SOO ARE PICKING UP 20 TO 30 DBZ
RETURNS. HOWEVER, WITH DELTA-TS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S C
TODAY AND WEAK TROUGHING HELPING TO INDUCE CONVERGENT FLOW, MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS, OVERALL LEADING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 3 OR LOCALLY EVEN 4
INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON, AND BARAGA COUNTIES BY THIS
EVENING. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, AND THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (WHICH I DON'T THINK
ARE WELL REPRESENTED BY THE LOCAL MODEL ANYMORE GIVEN RECENT
FEEDBACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS), DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM EST. HOWEVER, WITH THE OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO POTENTIALLY
THURSDAY, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT ENDS UP EXTENDING
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. INTO OR EVEN
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR THE EAST, WITH CONVERGENT FLOW POTENTIALLY
BEING STRONGER DUE TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGHING BEING OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADDITIONAL FETCH OVER THE LAKE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE LOWER LEVELS, HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1+ INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED FROM TIME-TO-TIME (AGAIN, AS CAN BE SEEN NEAR GRAND MARAIS
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING). THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD THUS
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS, BRINGING WITH IT
QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS WHERE THEY
REMAIN UNTREATED. TAKING THIS AND THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
(ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR) INTO ACCOUNT, I UPGRADED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES
INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS COLD AIR
DRAINAGE OCCURS OVER THE FAR EAST TONIGHT VIA THE SINKING AIR NORTH
OF THE SOO IN ONTARIO, CA, EXPECT THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE TO PUSH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND(S) FURTHER WEST WITH TIME (AS WELL AS DROP WIND
CHILLS AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISOR CRITERIA IN
LUCE COUNTY); THIS COULD POTENTIALLY FOCUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE EAST INTO A SINGLE-HEAVY SNOWFALL BAND WHERE 1+ INCHES OF FLUFFY
SNOW FALLS IN ANY GIVEN HOUR. CAMS SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT ENDING OVER
LUCE COUNTY THIS EVENING; THUS, HAVE DECIDED TO END THE WINTER STORM
WARNING OVER THERE AT 1 AM EST TONIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND(S) LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
ALGER COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT, WE MAY SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND(S) GO
FURTHER WEST THAN SOME OF THE CAMS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZING AT THE
MOMENT. THIS IS BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INGESTING HIGH ICE
CONCENTRATIONS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE MOMENT (AS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST GLERL ESTIMATE BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY). HOWEVER, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWING LAKE EFFECT FORMING OVER THE
SUPPOSEDLY ICED-OVER AREA, THINKING THE LAND BREEZE THAT THE MODELS
ARE CREATING DUE TO THE EXPECTED 'ICE' OVER THERE ARE PROBABLY NOT
GOING TO OCCUR. THUS, THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND(S) MAY END UP
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE ALGER/MARQUETTE BORDER, IF NOT BY THE CITY OF
MARQUETTE ITSELF, BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS ANY SHIFT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND(S) OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES/DECREASES IN SNOWFALL AND
IMPROVEMENTS/DEGRADATIONS IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN WIND
DIRECTION, WHICH MAY LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES OVER
AREAS LIKE MARQUETTE COUNTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
WE CONTINUE TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS REMNANT RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER FAR EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE LAKE EFFECT GOING
OVER THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH, EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO WIN-OUT AS THE LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO END BY SATURDAY.
WHILE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO, ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ARRIVES BY SATURDAY, EXPECT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE U.P. FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK; EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARDS. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME MORE DISTURBANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL BACK OVER THE AREA, EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE TO BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS A MORE ACTIVE 'HIGH
PRESSURE-LOW PRESSURE' PERIOD AND LOWER DELTA-TS (AS WELL AS GREATER
LAKE ICE COVERAGE) WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER DAY/NIGHT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. SAW WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING. GRIDDED GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CIGS
DROPPING TO NEAR LIFR AT IWD THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW LEVELS, OPTED TO KEEP CIGS LOW END MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE SLACKENED TO 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LAKE TODAY FROM CANADA.
AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER MOST OF THE
LAKE TO SLOWLY SHRINK IN COVERAGE WITH TIME, EVEN AS A POTENTIAL
CONVERGENT BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING INCREASES THE NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS IN SPOTS OVER THE
EAST. EVENTUALLY THOUGH, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME GENERALLY 20
KNOTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA THIS WEEK. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY TO RETURN, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE). AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO BECOME 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN; EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS
TO REMAIN THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
THURSDAY FOR LSZ240>244-251-263-264-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
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