121
FXUS63 KMQT 290532
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1232 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL (AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW) WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN U.P., MAINLY FROM
MUNISING EASTWARD AND NORTH OF M-28 THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER COPPER COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70%+) ON THE OCCURRENCE OF A HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT BAND OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF SAID BAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST TONIGHT, WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -20F OVER LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
STAYING BELOW OR NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA, ANCHORED
BY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW OVER FAVORED AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LATEST RADAR AND GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT MULTIPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS IMPACTING
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS FOCUSED OVER
ALGER COUNTY AIDED BY INCREASED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1" PER HOUR PER
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINTER STORM WARNING THUS
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN UP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE BETWEEN ROUGHLY MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS, WHERE
UPWARDS OF ANOTHER 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE OF THE PRIMARY ONGOING FORECAST CHALLENGES
WILL BE HOW THIS BANDING EVOLVES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
ORIENTATION GRADUALLY TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AND THE MAIN CONVERGENT
BAND SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH ALGER COUNTY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND, LIKELY OWING
IN PART TO TO OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HRRR AND A HANDFUL OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS DO DEPICT HEAVIER BANDING SHIFTING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND EVEN AS FAR WEST AS MARQUETTE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PROGRESSION FOR POTENTIAL
UPWARD REVISIONS IN SNOW TOTALS AND/OR ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES
OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
ELSEWHERE, WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
WEST/KEWEENAW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LAKE EFFECT BRINGS ANOTHER
1-3" WITH ONGOING BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR LUCE COUNTY AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE
IN NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AROUND -10F
IN THE EASTERN UP, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO AROUND -20F.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP
MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT GOING INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BEGINS TO FAVOR
THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST WIND SNOW BELTS, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ONGOING THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL FINALLY START TO SEE SOME
MORE NOTEWORTHY CHANGES IN THE PATTERN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE 500 MB
LOW CURRENTLY OVER JAMES BAY MIGRATES SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY, ALLOWING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MOSTLY BRING AN END
TO LAKE EFFECT THIS WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES HOLD AND 850 MB
TEMPS RESIDE CLOSER TO 0 TO -10 C AS OPPOSED TO THE NEGATIVE 20S WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
GROUND NBM SOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE LOW TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NW TO N, LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIP BAND OVER SAW AT 03Z SHIFTS OUT
BY 08Z, LOW-END VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL WINDS
SHIFTING TO BE MORE OUT OF THE N WILL BRING MORE CONSISTENT -SHSN TO
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS WIDELY SPREAD ON THE DETAILS OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT CMX
AND IWD THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH CHANCES OF -SHSN AT CMX OVER 55
PERCENT UNTIL AFTER 00Z, VFR FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PERIOD OF TIME IS
UNLIKELY UNTIL THEN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT). IWD'S CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR ARE LOWER (AROUND 20-35 PERCENT),
BUT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST MVFR OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD ARE SIMILARLY HIGH (75+%). CMX EVEN CARRIES UP TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF 1/2SM OR LOWER VISIBILITY AROUND 13-17Z THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, SAVE FOR A FEW SPOTS STILL UP IN THE 30 KT
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND NOTED ON RADAR. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER MOST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY SHRINK IN
COVERAGE WITH TIME THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY TO RETURN, ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE). AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN; EXPECT THE LIGHT
WINDS TO REMAIN THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ007.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ240>244-251-263-264-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...CB/TAP
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