823
FXUS63 KMQT 290759
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH WIND SNOW
BELTS TO THE END OF THIS WEEK AS A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES AND PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON COUNTY, AND ALGER
COUNTY TODAY. THE HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE OVER THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT TOO.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; EXPECT WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND
-20F IN LUCE COUNTY AND THE AREAS NEAR IT.
- COLD WEATHER PERSISTS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, WHEN TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL NOW SHIFTS INTO THE NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS TODAY
AND REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE LOW
PROGRESSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK. SOME MODERATE
(1/2 INCH PER HOUR) TO HEAVY (1+ INCH PER HOUR) LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS ARE BEING SEEN OVER THE EAST BY ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SOME OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
BEING REALIZED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING TOO WITH THE HELP OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST TODAY AS THE WEAKENING
WINDS LIMITS THE RANGE TO JUST ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES. AS FOR THE EAST, EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY TO SAND-LIKE SNOWFALL
OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY A DUSTING FALLING
EVERYWHERE ELSE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL, THINKING SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE SEEN BY THE LAKESHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN
DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS AS THE SOMEWHAT FLUFFY, SOMEWHAT SAND-
LIKE SNOW WILL STILL BE EASILY LOFTED INTO THE AIR, AND GUIDANCE
HASN'T HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL VERY WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL END OVER THE EAST
(AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER BARAGA/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON
COUNTIES) THIS MORNING, EXTENDED THE HAZARDS OVER THE WEST AND ALGER
COUNTY WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO AT LEAST 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE THE ADVISORY OVER THE WEST NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED
IN THE FUTURE AS THE LATEST HREF DOES SHOW OCCASIONAL MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN AT LEAST
KEWEENAW AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL RATES COULD MOVE ONSHORE
OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY TONIGHT, ALL OF GUIDANCE AT THE MOMENT IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL STILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE, DECIDED NOT TO HOIST UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY TONIGHT. IF, HOWEVER, THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TRENDS
ONSHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, THEN THIS MAY NEED TO BE
RECONSIDERED.
IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL, COLD AIR DRAINAGE JUST
NORTH OF THE SOO IN ONTARIO IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE FAR EASTERN U.P. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO 'SPILL' INTO THE EASTERN U.P.
EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES OVER LUCE COUNTY AND
AREAS NEAR IT TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER NEGATIVE TEENS, ALLOWING
WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. THUS, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER LUCE COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BASICALLY A RINSE-AND-REPEAT FOR
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, THE PLAN IS TO HAVE THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUCE COUNTY (AND POTENTIALLY
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND EVEN ALGER COUNTY TOO IF COLD ENOUGH) LATER
TODAY, UNLESS THEY BELIEVE THERE IS A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE GOING
FORECAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO DWINDLE AND END OVER THE U.P. BY SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND GREATER ICE COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THINKING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL BE VERY SMALL IF
NOT NEXT TO ZERO FOR NEXT WEEK; IF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOES OCCUR,
IT WOULD BE RELEGATED TO JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE AS
DELTA-TS WOULD ONLY GET UP TO AROUND THE LOWER TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NW TO N, LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIP BAND OVER SAW AT 03Z SHIFTS OUT
BY 08Z, LOW-END VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL WINDS
SHIFTING TO BE MORE OUT OF THE N WILL BRING MORE CONSISTENT -SHSN TO
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS WIDELY SPREAD ON THE DETAILS OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT CMX
AND IWD THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH CHANCES OF -SHSN AT CMX OVER 55
PERCENT UNTIL AFTER 00Z, VFR FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PERIOD OF TIME IS
UNLIKELY UNTIL THEN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT). IWD'S CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR ARE LOWER (AROUND 20-35 PERCENT),
BUT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST MVFR OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD ARE SIMILARLY HIGH (75+%). CMX EVEN CARRIES UP TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES OF 1/2SM OR LOWER VISIBILITY AROUND 13-17Z THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS
ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS
THIS OCCURS, EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO EXTEND OUT FROM THE EAST-
CENTRAL TO MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ENDING TOO WITH THE DWINDLING
WINDS. AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE
MAY SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004-
084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ243-244-264.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ245>248-265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ249-
250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP
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