549
FXUS63 KMQT 120027
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN UP. 1-3" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED NEAR GRAND MARAIS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
THIS AFTERNOON AS DELTA-TS AROUND 13C OVER THE LAKE SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE WEST PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES AND EVENTUALLY ENDS THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE THINKING NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AMOUNTING TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE/DUSTING WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON, WE COULD STILL SEE 1-3
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS POTENTIALLY
GETTING UP TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE.
WHILE THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE U.P. CLOUD
COVERED THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE LAKE EFFECT CEASES THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE SKIES TO SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID, WE
MAY STILL SEE SOME SPOTS WHERE CLOUD COVER STAYS AROUND AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND KEWEENAW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IS SOMEWHAT LOW (30-40% CHANCE), WITH
COVERAGE BEING VERY SPOTTY AS WELL (POTENTIALLY 20 TO 30% OF THE
LAND AREA OF THE U.P.). THEREFORE, I DID NOT INCLUDE FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS, ALTHOUGH I DID
INCLUDE THE PATCHES OF FOG AS CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE PATCHY FOG CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS; EXPECT
ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE AT MOST. WITH
WARMER AIR PROGRESSIVELY MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK
(AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND), EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 20S OVER THE EAST TO MID 30S OVER THE WEST; EXPECT THE LOWS
TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE EAST TO SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS/NEAR ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR WEST (WE CAN THANK THE CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TONIGHT).
GENERALLY QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY AS
LOWS DROP INTO GENERALLY THE 20S. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, NO
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY COULD SKIRT THE AREA AND BRING A SMALL, QUICK
BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN U.P.. THAT BEING
SAID THOUGH, WITH CHANCES REMAINING AT AND BELOW 15% AT THIS POINT
IN TIME, DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTIONS OF THE SNOWFALL OUT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. AS WE STAY WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TWO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER,
PREDICTABILITY ON THE TRACK ON ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS VERY LOW
(20% OR LESS) AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF WE DO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW, RAIN, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 726 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
MVFR LAKE EFFECT CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AT
CMX AND SAW, SO WILL DELAY VFR ONSET UNTIL AT LEAST THU 06Z.
IWD, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD
SEE SOME MVFR FOG IN THE THU 08-12Z TIME FRAME. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME MFVR VIS RESTRICTIONS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT CMX WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON FALL TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN,
EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY TO CEASE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BY THIS EVENING
AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS BACK OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND
THIS, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LIGHT WINDS REMAINING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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