410
FXUS63 KMQT 121126
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
626 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UP THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
EARLY MORNING KMQT RADAR RETURNS REVEAL TRANSIENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS
DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL UP. LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING AND CONVERGENCE
HAVE KEPT GOING LES LONGER THAN EXPECTED, THUS HAVE UPDATED THE
SHORT TERM TO REFLECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN MQT,
ESC, AND MUN THIS MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE, WIND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING REMAIN RATHER LIGHT,
THOUGH A FEW 15-20 MPH GUSTS ARE STILL BEING FOUND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE, THUS THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL.
REGARDLESS, AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING, TAKE IT
SLOW AS HEAVIER LES SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1
MILE.
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING WELCOMED SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE EAST-
CENTRAL THROUGH MORNING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF AS ENCOMPASSING DRY AIR
EATS AWAY AT LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS REDUCE
CONVERGENCE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH THE 30 DEGREE MARK TODAY
WITH PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND S-CENTRAL LIKELY BREAKING FREEZING.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. UPSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND THE WEST US COAST, LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
LOWER 48. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AIM TO REACH 35-45F (10-20F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!) TOMORROW THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CREATE UNSTABLE ICE CONDITIONS ON THE
SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ON INLAND LAKES, SO THOSE WITH VESTED
INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR ICE CONDITIONS. THE NICE THING
IS THAT WE STILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT, AND EVEN THOUGH
SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT HERE AND THERE, THE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE
ISN'T QUITE AS WRATHFUL AS MARCH/APRIL RAYS ARE ON ICE COVER.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE QUIET AND WARM PERIOD FINALLY BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS THE PASSAGE
OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WESTERN TROUGHING BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO THE PLAINS, SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME, DETERMINISTIC
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE OVERALL TIMING, STRENGTH,
AND LOCATION. THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A TARGET OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES, BUT FOR NOW, ENJOY THE
WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE AT KCMX, BUT GUIDANCE IS KEEN ON THIS
IMPROVING TO VFR SOON AFTER ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THIS BEGINNING. OTHERWISE, KSAW IS CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF MVFR CEILINGS. LIKE KCMX THOUGH, THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS ON TRACK TO IMPROVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. ASIDE FROM THESE
STUBBURN CLOUDS THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS BACK OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE LIGHT WINDS REMAINING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW/TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page