750
FXUS63 KMQT 130523
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
- A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S AND TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWERS HAD DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
EAST BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES LINGERED. TEMPERATURES HAD
WARMED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S CENTRAL AND EAST WITH MID 30S TO
LOW 40S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. IN FACT, THE INTERIOR WEST WAS THE
COLDEST AREA IN THE U.P THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO BUT IS NOW SITTING AT THE WARMEST AREA IN THE U.P. THE
TEMPERATURE SWING AT THE RAWS STATIONS IN WAKEFIELD AND
WATERSMEET SO FAR TODAY IS AN IMPRESSIVE 49 DEGREES!
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S
WILL BECOME RELATIVELY ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DRAGGING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE U.P THOUGH
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREAFTER RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A SERIES OF STRONGER
SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN U.P ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
SKIRTS THE AREA. ON FRIDAY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE 30S AND 40S, PARTS
OF MENOMINEE COUNTY COULD APPROACH 50F. WHEN WITH THE NBM 90PCT AS
WE OFTEN WILL OVERACHIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHER SUN
ANGLE UNDER THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS, EXCEPT OVER THE EAST AND
KEWEENAW WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE IN INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.P, AIDED BY A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE. THIS COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S FROM MARQUETTE AND EAST AROUND
2PM. REFLECTIVITY FIELDS IN THE CAMS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WITH LACK OF
ICE, AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 20S LAKESIDE.
OVERALL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE NBM MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WARMEST SOUTH
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING ARE IN THE 90%+ RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIER
SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE NORTHERN TIER A BIT COLDER ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY THE GFS AND NAM SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORMING A LOW
STATUS DECK AT/BELOW THE INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.
AS A RESULT THESE MODELS STRUGGLE TO GET TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P AS
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OVER ONTARIO.
WHILE THESE COLDER SOLUTIONS SEEM LIKE REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME RESOLVING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/STRATUS IN THESE CONDITIONS, WILL KEEP WITH THE NBM AT THIS
POINT BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP AND MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT
FROM THE ROCKIES AND HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME IN HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
LLWS SETS UP OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES OVER US AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER CMX WHERE CHANCES FOR
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS/FG ARE HIGHEST. FG COULD ALSO FORM OVER IWD AND
SAW THIS EVENING TOO, BUT THINKING WEAK SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPES WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS FROM AIRPORT MINS THIS EVENING; NEVERTHELESS,
INCLUDED SCT CIGS OF IFR AT IWD AND MVFR AT SAW THIS EVENING TO
ALERT YOU ALL TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS VIA LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER (AND POSSIBLY FG) NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25 KTS TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, RELAXING BELOW 20 KTS IN THE WEST
BUT STILL MAINTAINING 25 KTS IN THE EAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
WINDS FALL BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) BY
WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...NL
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