879
FXUS63 KMQT 131742
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR
EASTERN UP TODAY (20-40% CHANCE). FLURRIES, LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE, AND FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW
THROUGH WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
- A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR AS MID-LEVEL WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SCATTERED RADAR IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL UP SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE SEEN A THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, SUSPECT THAT NOTHING
IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ASOS OBS AT IWD AND CMX STILL
HOLD ONTO TD DEPRESSIONS 10-15 F. FURTHER EAST, TD DEPS ARE LESS (5-
10F OR LESS), SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES SHOULD SHOWERS HOLD AS
THEY PRESS EAST. OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST(0 POPS) FOR NOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY KICK OFF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN UP, MAINLY EAST OF
MUNISING. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING,
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A TRACE OF SNOW FROM
NEWBERRY TO THE SOO. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A STOUT LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
UP WITH AMPLE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH IT. GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE IN THE
CLOUD LAYER, FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THIS WILL POSE ANY THREAT AT ALL.
FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 40-45F AGAIN.
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT FZDZ MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SPATIAL EXTENT IS LOW. THIS MAY
ALSO RESULT IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES COMING IN BELOW THE GOING NBM,
WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. OTHERWISE, NO
MEANINGFUL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN TROUGHING FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN AN ON ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, RUN-TO-
RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NOT QUITE THERE YET TO PROVIDE
ANY DEFINITIVE ANSWERS. THIS WILL BE A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT. HI-RES
MODELS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH ON THIS POTENTIAL, AND THERE WAS SOME
FREEZING FOG WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1SM WITH SOME AREAS OF 1/4SM
LAST NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MN AND ND. LOCAL TERMINALS MAY BE MORE ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER FOG POTENTIAL THOUGH, SO WILL RETAIN
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, AND DENSE FREEZING FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST,
RELAXING BELOW 20 KTS IN THE WEST BUT STILL MAINTAINING 25 KTS IN
THE EAST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN WINDS FALL BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE (50%
CHANCE) BY WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...BW/NL
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