662
FXUS63 KMQT 140542
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1242 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT, BECOMING DENSE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR-WESTERN UP. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
- A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS AND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ARE PASSING EAST. BEHIND IT,
DRY MIDLEVEL AIR WORKING IN HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. IN TURN, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE UP HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF THE UP
HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN THE KEWEENAW AND IN THE FAR
EASTERN UP, WHERE CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR, TEMPERATURES SO FAR
HAVE CLIMBED ONLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 30S. MEANWHILE, WINDS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LINGER INTO THE EVENING WHILE A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE TOP OF OUR SNOWPACK.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE COURTESY OF
DAYTIME SNOWMELT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP TONIGHT. THIS MAY TURN DENSE AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY NEARER TO THE WI BORDER WHERE HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS, FREEZING
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADWAYS.
RE-FREEZING OF MELTED SNOW ON ROADWAYS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY SLICK SPOTS...BUT WILL NOTE THAT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE UP ARE
SHOWING DRY ROADS FOR THE MOST PART. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES GIVEN THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
DENSE FOG THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER QUIET DAY SATURDAY
WHILE WINDS BACK SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UP, BUT SOUNDINGS OVER THE EASTERN UP SHOW
LITTLE SIGN OF THAT LOW CLOUD COVER MIXING OUT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 30S IN THE EASTERN UP AND IN THE LOWER-MID 40S IN THE WEST.
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER MY PICK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR COPIES OF
SATURDAY, WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND JUST A WEAK, MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES START IN THE MID
20S EACH MORNING, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH
AFTERNOON. STUBBORN LOWER-LEVEL INVERSIONS PRESENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/FREEZING FOG
EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
WESTERN TROUGHING FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN AN ON ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD,
WITH A COUPLE COLORADO LOWS POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-
TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NOT QUITE THERE YET TO PROVIDE ANY
DEFINITIVE ANSWERS, AS PARTICULAR TRACK AND TIMING WOULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. THIS WILL
BE A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS WILL DETERIORATE OVER CMX AND
SAW BEFORE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP TO THE
DEWPOINT AND THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FG TO FORM; WE MAY SEE
CONDITIONS REACH AIRPORT MINS AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BEFORE THE
FG CLEARS AWAY LATE IN THE MORNING/BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON (30%
CHANCE FOR LIFR VIS AT CMX AND 45% CHANCE AT SAW). HOWEVER, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED OVER IWD (FG CHANCES SHIFTED
FURTHER EAST, INCREASING OVER CMX AND SAW), EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMX AND SAW ARE
LOOKING TO RETURN TO VFR AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALTHOUGH MORE FG MAY BE REALIZED OVER THE TWO TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER TO THE W AND NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, COMING IN BELOW 20 KTS IN
THE WEST BUT STILL MAINTAINING 20 KTS IN THE EAST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
WINDS FALL BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, WITH GALES POSSIBLE (50% CHANCE) BY
WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS - BUT
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-005-010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC
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