767
FXUS63 KMQT 141118
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
618 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL STORM WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG
WINDS, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD UPPER MICHIGAN SAVE FOR PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IN THE EAST HALF
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FLURRIES, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND LOW STRATUS,
WHERE IN REALITY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN SEEN. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/FREEZING FOG. A FEW
DIPS IN VIS AND ASOS REPORTS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE BEEN SEEN AT
CMX/SAW/ERY, BUT WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE SUGGEST ITS PATCHY AND
FLEETING. REGARDLESS, THESE AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
A QUIET SATURDAY IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES OF
LATE HAVE BEEN A DOOZY TO FORECAST, COMING IN EACH DAY WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. THUS, OPTING TO BUMP UP TEMPS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
NBM GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST AND
30S EAST. WOULD NOT SHOCK ME TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH 45-50
AGAIN UNDERNEATH THE BLAZING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE. SHOULD STRATUS AND
FOG LINGER IN THE EAST MORE THAN EXPECTED, A GOOD 10-15 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD SET UP ACROSS THE UP TODAY. TEMPS TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. TONIGHT, WE FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING FOG/FREEZING FOG UNDER A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG/FZFG IS RATHER LOW, HOWEVER.
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES GLANCE THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY, RETURNING LOW POPS (<25%) TO THE EASTERN UP. OPTING
TO HOLD ONTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GOING NBM, BOTH OF WHICH
REMAIN DRY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MID-WEEK TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHAT THOSE
IMPACTS WILL BE, REMAIN TO BE SEEN. WESTERN TROUGHING EJECTS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, DEVELOPING
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
FORCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, LIKELY ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES,
INCLUDING A NARROW AREA OF HEAVY SNOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBILITIES ALL TIED TO THE INEVITABLE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. A FEW FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF WAA, WHICH MAY CREATE P-TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, DRY NE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AXIS. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD, WHICH IN TANDEM WITH HEAVY SNOW (SHOULD
THIS SET UP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN) MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
CHANGES AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX AND KSAW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON VISIBILITY CATEGORY, BUT AS LOW AS IFR IS
FAVORED AT KSAW AND MVFR AT KCMX. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY OTHERWISE. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN INCREASED NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN OVERNIGHT INVERSION TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
FOG/MIST DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY
AND SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, WITH
GALES POSSIBLE (75%% CHANCE) BY WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO
MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS - BUT EXACT TRACK AND TIMING REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-005-010-011.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW/LC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page