424
FXUS63 KMQT 141725
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, INDICATIVE OF A SEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. 850 MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 0C INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AVERAGE AROUND +1 TO +2 SIGMA. LOWER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP TODAY
WITH THE LATTER SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN, KEEPING TEMPS FROM BEING TOO ABNORMAL (THOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S). OVER THE WEST HALF, ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS
EXCEEDING MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
40-50F.
TONIGHT, THE CONCERN FOR FOG AND FREEZING FOG RETURNS, ALTHOUGH CAMS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST AREAS LAST NIGHT.
REASON TO BELIEVE THE FOG THREAT IS A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL RH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY LOW/MID LEVELS. WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY SUNDAY
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S NORTH HALF TO
MID-40S SOUTH HALF.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MID-WEEK TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXACTLY WHERE AND WHAT THOSE
IMPACTS WILL BE, REMAIN TO BE SEEN. WESTERN TROUGHING EJECTS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, DEVELOPING
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
FORCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, LIKELY ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES,
INCLUDING A NARROW AREA OF HEAVY SNOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBILITIES ALL TIED TO THE INEVITABLE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW. A FEW FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF WAA, WHICH MAY CREATE P-TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, DRY NE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AXIS. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD, WHICH IN TANDEM WITH HEAVY SNOW (SHOULD
THIS SET UP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN) MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
CHANGES AND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND JUST SOME STRAY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING
THROUGH. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RESULT IN INCREASED NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH AN OVERNIGHT INVERSION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FOG/MIST DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT A DETERIORATION TO MVFR AT
IWD AND IFR AT CMX AND SAW, WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY
AND SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY, WITH
GALES POSSIBLE (75%% CHANCE) BY WEDNESDAY AS STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO
MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS - BUT EXACT TRACK AND TIMING REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW/LC
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