763
FXUS63 KMQT 150535
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND
POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, INDICATIVE OF A SEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. 850 MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 0C INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AVERAGE AROUND +1 TO +2 SIGMA. LOWER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP TODAY
WITH THE LATTER SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF COOL
LAKE MICHIGAN, KEEPING TEMPS FROM BEING TOO ABNORMAL (THOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S). OVER THE WEST HALF, ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS
EXCEEDING MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
40-50F.
TONIGHT, THE CONCERN FOR FOG AND FREEZING FOG RETURNS, ALTHOUGH CAMS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN MOST AREAS LAST NIGHT.
REASON TO BELIEVE THE FOG THREAT IS A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT OVER THE
EAST HALF GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL RH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY LOW/MID LEVELS. WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY SUNDAY
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S NORTH HALF TO
MID-40S SOUTH HALF.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE ZONAL FLOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT AMOUNTS/BRIEF DURATION. THERE ARE SOME
NONZERO FREEZING RAIN PROBS, BUT TOOK THESE OUT OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN THAT THE WETBULB PROFILE IS BELOW ZERO, SO ANY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BRIEF BURST OF PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RAIN OR SNOW.
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING INVADES THE WESTERN CONUS AND A VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LEAD WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS HERE. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO FOR A WINTRY SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG AND FAIRLY LONG-DURATION OVERRUNNING
IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS WAVE GOES VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED, SHEARS OUT, AND STALLS (IN THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN). HOWEVER,
CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST THAT WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT. TWO ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HERE ARE THE SOUTHERN EPS-
AIFS AND THE NORTHERN CMCE. THE FORMER PUTS THE GREATEST SNOW PROBS
OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UP, WHILE THE LATTER IS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN THE SNOW PROBS MAINLY NORTH OF THE UP
(PLAIN RAIN SCENARIO). EPS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GEFS IN A MIDDLE
SOLUTION, RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE UP, AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR IMPACTS IS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE
FORMATION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE AT CMX, ESPECIALLY IN THE SUN 12-16Z TIME FRAME, WHILE IWD
SHOULD HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/IFR MARK. SAW, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL
BE TRENDING TOWARD LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING FOG ALREADY
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THUS CONDUCIVE
TO FOG AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION THIS MORNING.
LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
REPEAT OF FOG AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO BRING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH UP
TO 75% CHANCE FOR GALES AND 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ELEVATED AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMPSON
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...THOMPSON
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