789
FXUS63 KMQT 151202
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG DISSIPATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS,
AND POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTECEDENT
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS PAIRED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP, THUS A DRY FORECAST
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. AS NOTED BY NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE CHANNEL, OBSERVATIONS, AND AREA WEBCAMS, AN AREA OF
FREEZING FOG/REGULAR OLE FOG IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UP. MODEL
SOUNDING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-LOW 40S IS IN STORE TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT AMOUNTS/BRIEF DURATION. OPTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHT CHANCE (<25% CHANCE) POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WHERE
A FEW CAMS SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GLANCING BY, OTHERWISE A
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL QPF (<0.05") WILL BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP. ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP QUICKLY
DEPARTS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
WORK TO SCATTER OUT CLOUDS AND ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S
AGAIN ON MONDAY. TUESDAY REMAINS DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAID
HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH SHOULD COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NE FLOW AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING INVADES THE WESTERN CONUS AND A VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LEAD WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS HERE.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT FOR A WINTRY SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG AND FAIRLY LONG-DURATION
OVERRUNNING IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS WAVE GOES VERY
NEGATIVELY TILTED, SHEARS OUT, AND STALLS (IN THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN).
HOWEVER, CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST THAT WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
AI/ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE WORKING TOWARDS THE GEFS/GFS SOLUTION,
PLACING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS OVER THE UP AND NORTHERN MN. THE
EURO ENS AND DETERMINISTIC IS THE OUTLIER, SURPRISINGLY, INCHING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTH, PROVIDING THE LEAST SNOW AND MOST P-TYPE
ISSUE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS,
OF CORRECT MODEL SOLUTION, OVERRUNNING SCENARIOS LIKE THIS TEND TO
UNDER DO WAA, MIXED PRECIP, AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENT, GUSTY E TO NE
WINDS IN WINTER PRECIP TYPE WILL ADD AN EXTRA LAYER OF HAZARD TO THE
EQUATION.
MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEAR AS WE SAMPLE THE LANDFALLING TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
IMPACTS IS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RESPITE FROM WINTER WEATHER MAY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY 24-36 HOURS) AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY CO LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
QUICKER TO LIFT THIS ONE THROUGH THE AREA AND SUGGESTS LESS OVERALL
QPF THAN THIS FIRST SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL TRACK AND SYSTEM
STRENGTH ARE NOT FULLY AGREED UPON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND CENTRAL/EASTERN UP THIS
MORNING, PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AT KCMX AND KSAW WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS AT KCMX THROUGH ~14Z SUN. WILL SEE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WETS INCLUDING KIWD. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE
AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
MODELS DEPICT A 50-60% CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP AT KCMX AND KSAW
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TO BRING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH UP
TO 90% CHANCE FOR GALES AND 25-40% CHANCE FOR STORMS. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW/THOMPSON
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW/THOMPSON
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