128
FXUS63 KMQT 160541
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1241 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRAZE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING; SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN UP.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND
POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
MIDLEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE UP. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO SUNNY AND
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP. HOWEVER,
VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS QUITE NICELY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER
OVER SUPERIOR THAT HAS SPILLED OVER THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE
EASTERN UP. SURFACE OBS AND WEBCAMS ALSO INDICATE PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE, MOST DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW - PERHAPS WITH SOME HELPFUL
UPSLOPING? IN THESE CLOUDY AREAS, TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE
TO REACH AS HIGH AS THE LOWER/MID 30S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, SLIDES
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THE CAMS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAKE, AND GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AS WELL AS RATHER DRY AIR OVER THE UP, THIS IS
REASONABLE. STILL, SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WON'T BE RULED OUT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH JUST
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH A WARM NOSE PRESENT OVER
THE FAR EAST PRESENTS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY MORNING. STILL, WITH VERY LIGHT QPF, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WRAPS UP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING INVADES THE WESTERN CONUS AND A VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LEAD WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS HERE. STRONG AND FAIRLY LONG-
DURATION OVERRUNNING WAA IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS
WAVE GOES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED, SHEARS OUT, AND STALLS (IN THE
MULTI-MODEL MEAN). WE'LL HAVE HEALTHY DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS
PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH GIVEN YOUR MODEL OF
CHOICE, AS HIGH AS 300% OF NORMAL! MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS US WITH A WIDESPREAD 0.6-0.8IN OF QPF BY
00Z THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WHERE LAKE AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCUR (NAMELY, THE NORTH-CENTRAL UP AND OUR
COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE BAY OF GREEN BAY).
HOWEVER, CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST THAT WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
AI/ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE WORKING TOWARDS THE GEFS/GFS SOLUTION,
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF NEAR NW IA TUESDAY EVENING,
DEEPENING TO NEAR/BELOW 990MB OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN, AND TRACKING
INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS PLACES THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS OVER THE UP AND NORTHERN MN. THE EURO ENS AND
DETERMINISTIC REMAIN THE MORE NORTHERLY OUTLIER, WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW AWAY TO OUR NORTHWEST, MAINLY IMPACTING THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN. FOR US, THIS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE THE LEAST SNOW COMPARED
TO OTHER GUIDANCE, AND MOST P-TYPE ISSUE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS OF CORRECT MODEL SOLUTION,
OVERRUNNING SCENARIOS LIKE THIS TEND TO UNDER DO WAA, MIXED PRECIP,
AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NOTE THAT GFS SOUNDINGS, IN
SPITE OF BEING THE "SNOWIER" SOLUTION, STILL SUPPORT MIXED
PRECIPITATION OF A LEAST SOME VARIETY OVER MUCH OF THE UP. THIS IS
ALL TO SAY THAT EXACT TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WHAT WE DO KNOW:
SHOVEL-ABLE WET, HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT MAY INCLUDE
FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, GENERALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE FORECAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT, GUSTY E TO NE WINDS WITH WET WINTER PRECIP TYPE
WILL ADD AN EXTRA LAYER OF HAZARD TO THE EQUATION.
RESPITE FROM WINTER WEATHER MAY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY 24-36 HOURS) AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY CO LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
QUICKER TO LIFT THIS ONE THROUGH THE AREA AND SUGGESTS LESS OVERALL
QPF THAN THIS FIRST SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL TRACK AND SYSTEM
STRENGTH ARE NOT FULLY AGREED UPON. A MORE WINTRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
BEHIND THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL KEEP IN CHANCES FOR LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS MORE OR
LESS SEASONABLE VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
CMX AND SAW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
SAW AFTER MON 12Z, BUT A ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL INHIBIT
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AT LEAST MON 16Z AT CMX. BUT, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE THE MVFR MARK EVEN BY THE AFTERNOON AT CMX AND
SAW. ELSEWHERE, WILL CARRY VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH UP TO 90% CHANCE
FOR GALES AND 25-40% CHANCE FOR STORMS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ELEVATED AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ242>250-263>266.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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