486
FXUS63 KMQT 161158
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GRAZE THE UP THIS MORNING; PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
EASTERN UP.
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARQUETTE, BARAGA,
NORTHERN HOUGHTON, AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE EXPANDED ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL A
SHORTWAVE WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP, HOWEVER, NO PRECIP HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND AS MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A STOUT LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY
LAYER. FURTHER UPSTREAM, AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP CURRENTLY (AS OF
3 AM EST WRITING THIS DISCUSSION) SOUTH OF DULUTH IS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS N-CENTRAL WI. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AS IT
PRESSES INTO THE S-CENTRAL UP THROUGH DAYBREAK. INTERESTINGLY, THIS
BLOB MANAGED TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT FIRST
DEVELOPED. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, NOT THINKING ANY HEAVY PRECIP
WILL REACH THE GROUND. MODEL SOUNDING WETBULBS SUGGEST ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE RAIN/SNOW OR A MIX. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST UP, HAVING LIFTED AT
SAW/CMX JUST ABOUT NOW. GUIDANCE IS HIT OR MISS ON STUBBORN FOG
CLEARING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THINKING FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE SOUTH AS
SPOTTY PRECIP PASSES BY, LINGERING IN THE EAST THE LONGEST. DRY AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT, SCATTERING CLOUDS AND
USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING FOG/FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. TUESDAY REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIFT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORY. MORE BELOW ON THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM.
DEEP TROUGHING INVADES THE WESTERN CONUS AND A VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JET DEVELOPS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LEAD WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS HERE. STRONG AND FAIRLY LONG-
DURATION OVERRUNNING WAA IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THIS
WAVE GOES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED, SHEARS OUT, AND STALLS (IN THE
MULTI-MODEL MEAN). WE'LL HAVE HEALTHY DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS
PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH GIVEN YOUR MODEL OF
CHOICE, AS HIGH AS 300% OF NORMAL (99TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY)! MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS
US WITH A WIDESPREAD 0.6-0.8IN OF QPF BY 00Z THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WHERE LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OCCUR
(NAMELY, THE NORTH-CENTRAL UP AND KEWEENAW).
HOWEVER, CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST, DESPITE BEING NEARLY
48 HOURS OUT FROM PRECIP ONSET, THAT WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR AI/ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS ARE STILL WORKING TOWARDS THE GEFS/GFS SOLUTION, WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF NEAR NW IA TUESDAY EVENING,
DEEPENING TO NEAR/BELOW 990MB OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN, AND TRACKING
INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STILL, THE AI
ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS, EURO/ENS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
WEST, AND THE GEFS/GFS AS A HAPPY MEDIUM. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE 00Z
NAM DECIDED TO GO NORTH TOWARDS THE EURO SOLUTION AS WELL.
THESE DIFFERENCES PLACE THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW AXIS ANYWHERE FROM THE
UP/WI BORDER (AI ENSEMBLES), TO ACROSS THE ENTIRE UP (GEFS/GFS) TO
THE FAR EASTERN UP AND KEWEENAW / MN NORTHSHORE AND ARROW HEAD
(EURO/NAM). THE LATTER LIKELY BEING THE RAINIEST AND OR MORE MIXED
PRECIP SCENARIO, POTENTIALLY MORE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SHOULD THE MORE
SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HIGH PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES (>70% CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP. OPTING TO RUN
WITH THE NBM FOR NOW, GIVING US A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (4-
8") ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP, LESS 1-4 THE FURTHER SOUTH
YOU GO. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY TO MIX IN AS THE
ELEVATED WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE NBM SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 25-50% CHANCE FOR A GLAZE OF
ICE ACROSS THE UP, MAINLY S-CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH LOWER PROBS
(<20%) OR AMOUNTS >0.1" BEFORE WE CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW CHARACTER
WILL BE VERY WET (SLRS STARTING OFF 5:1 OR LESS BEFORE RISING TO
NEAR 10:1 WED PM) GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE VALUES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY BELOW THE DGZ. THIS WILL CURB BLOWING BLOW/BLIZZARD
THREAT HOWEVER IN COMBINATION WITH E/ENE WINDS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE KEWEENAW, POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO
TREES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, I'VE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR MARQUETTE, BARAGA, N HOUGHTON, AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES,
THOUGH THIS MAY BE FURTHER EXPANDED BASED ON TRENDS ANALYZED BY
THE DAY TEAM.
RESPITE FROM WINTER WEATHER MAY BE SHORT LIVED (ONLY 24-36 HOURS) AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY CO LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE QUICKER TO
LIFT THIS ONE THROUGH THE AREA AND SUGGESTS LESS OVERALL QPF THAN
THIS FIRST SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL TRACK AND SYSTEM STRENGTH
ARE NOT FULLY AGREED UPON. A MORE WINTRY AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND
THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL KEEP IN CHANCES FOR LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS MORE OR LESS
SEASONABLE VALUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
RADAR DEPICTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING, BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS HAS HELPED TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND BRING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING,
WITH FOG LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF PRODUCING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW. ANTICIPATE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AND BRING MVFR CIGS AT
KSAW INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS 04-08Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH UP TO 90% CHANCE
FOR GALES AND 25-40% CHANCE FOR STORMS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ELEVATED AROUND 30 KT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
COLDER AIR RETURNS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001-003>005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ242>250-263>266.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW
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