270
FXUS63 KMQT 162349
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
649 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK.
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW, NORTH
CENTRAL, AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE
EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER TO THE U.P. ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
EXPECT SOME SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING WORK IN TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AFTER THE WARM
WEATHER TODAY, EXPECT FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP BACK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS WE COOL BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AND TO
THE DEWPOINT; DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE FOG/FREEZING
FOG TO FORM TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE LOWS GET INTO THE 20S TO EVEN
TEENS. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS; EXPECT THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE 30S TO POTENTIALLY AROUND 40 ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER.
THE 'MAIN ATTRACTION' OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING UPPER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER US
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THIS IS
BECAUSE AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IT WEAKENS WITH TIME, WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING AHEAD OF IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AT AROUND 995MB BY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY AMONGST THE VARYING GUIDANCES THAT WE
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA, WHERE HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IS ON THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE MAY SEE
MULTIPLE PRECIP-TYPE CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES OSCILLATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR
FREEZING ALOFT (AND AT THE SFC OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF THE WEST); THE POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CHANGES IN PRECIP-TYPE ARE
LIKELY DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING FIGHTING THE INCOMING WARM, MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES COULD COOL THE PROFILES
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY, WET SNOW TO REACH THE
SFC. THAT BEING SAID, THE INCOMING WARM, MOIST GULF AIR WILL TRY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT, POTENTIALLY CHANGING SNOWFALL BACK OVER TO
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
WHERE THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DOWN TO TWO GENERAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THE FRONT GENERALLY
SETS UP SHOP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, BRINGING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL, EAST, AND KEWEENAW.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE EFI IS HIGHLIGHTING A "HIGH BOOM"
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THESE AREAS, SHOWING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING THE MAX OF MODELED CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER, THE AI GEFS,
THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES, AND CANADIAN SUITE STILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. INSTEAD. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW TOTALS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT
SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING; IF THE AI SOLUTIONS
WERE TO COME TO FRUITION, EXPECT THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS TO BE SEEN
OVER DELTA, DICKINSON, AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES INSTEAD OF THE
KEWEENAW, NORTH CENTRAL, AND EAST, WITH THE PRECIP TYPE MOSTLY BEING
SNOWFALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
OVERALL, THIS COULD BE AN IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WHERE
TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AND SOME POWER OUTAGES COULD BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IS SOMEWHAT MITIGATED
DUE TO THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL BEING FAIRLY WET (AROUND A 6-10:1 SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIO), WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED WE
COULD SEE THE STRONG EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO EVEN 50 MPH OVER
THE KEWEENAW BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN, WHICH
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES EVEN MORE THAN WHAT THE SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CAUSE (1/2 MILE OR LESS IN MODERATE SNOWFALL, 1/4 MILE OR LESS
IN HEAVY SNOWFALL); THE AREAS WHERE THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IS THE
HIGHEST IS ALONG THE KEWEENAW AND MARQUETTE COUNTY. WITH THE WINDS
BEING STRONG FROM THE EAST WITH THIS EVENT, WE MAY SEE SOME POWER
OUTAGES GIVEN THE NOT-TOO-COMMON WIND DIRECTION. THUS, WE MAY SEE A
FEW TREE BRANCHES BREAK OFF AND COME DOWN ON POWERLINES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY, EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER US TO OCCLUDE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL IN TURN CHANGE THE PRECIP
TYPE TO ALL SNOWFALL, WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL BECOMING RELEGATED
TO THE EAST-WIND UPSLOPES OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE KEWEENAW,
WHERE SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD BE SEEN
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE FORCING WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO LIGHTEN, WITH SOME SPOTS TRANSITIONING
OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT GETS LOST AND THE
LOWER LEVELS FAIL TO REACH THE DGZ. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WINTER STORM
COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY AS A COLORADO LOW LIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN; THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM TOO. BEHIND THIS,
EXPECT MORE 'WINTER-LIKE' CONDITIONS AS A SHOT OF REINFORCING COLD
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS MORE LIGHT
SNOWFALL OVER US THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
MAIN IMPACT THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE IFR/LIFR FOG FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. UNTIL THEN, THOUGH,
EXPECT VFR TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. AFTER FOG SCATTERS
OUT AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW, VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL UNTIL LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THEY BEGIN GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS AT IWD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OF GALES TO 40 KNOTS TO
POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS REMNANT TROUGHING HANGS AROUND THE ARROWHEAD;
HOWEVER, GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BEING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THIS TIME FROM COLORADO,
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT THE WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY; AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING,
THE NBM BRINGS A 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATES
INTO THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXPECT THE WINDS TO ONLY SLOWLY
WEAKEN WITH TIME FROM FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK MORE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY.
WHILE NO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED, WE MAY SEE SOME FREEZING
SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001-003>005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ162.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ242>250-263>266.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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