241
FXUS63 KMQT 172008
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED IMPACTS INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW,
STRONG WINDS, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE KEWEENAW TO NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COUNTIES. HIGHEST ICE AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KEWEENAW, NORTH
CENTRAL, AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ONTONAGON AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
TO THE U.P. AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO IS LEADING TO QUIET
CONDITIONS THUS FAR, WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UP. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR, AND IS GENERALLY STAYING OFFSHORE ALONG A LINE FROM
NORTHERN BARAGA COUNTY TO PICTURED ROCKS. HOWEVER, FROM AROUND GRAND
MARAIS AND EASTWARD, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE MAKING IT ONSHORE.
STILL, THIS APPEARS ALREADY TO BE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
MY ASSUMPTION BEING THAT THERE IS LESS OF A CAP OVER THE WATER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT BELOW FREEZING.
WHILE ON THE TOPIC, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN QUITE WARM
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, PEAKING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR-
WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UP. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE, BUT HOVER MORE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. FOLLOWING A SUNNY
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF OUR MUCH-
ADVERTISED WINTER SYSTEM.
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING
OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A 984MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL WI. THIS SHOULD LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN UP OR NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST DETAILS ARE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT CONSISTENCY IN RECENT
RUNS IN PAINTING THE SWATH OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP, AND LOWER TOTALS TO THE SOUTH WHERE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. STILL, SOME GUIDANCE (IN PARTICULAR THE
CANADIAN) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL U.P., AND THE FORECAST THUS REMAINS SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS TRICKY
TO PIN DOWN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM LAYER ALOFT
STRADDLING THE 0C ISOTHERM THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE IN THE UP (THOUGH, AGAIN,
HIGHEST ICE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UP
TOWARDS THE WI BORDER). SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LINGER NEAR
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT NEAR THE WI BORDER, ALLOWING
SOME PLAIN RAIN TO MIX IN AS WELL, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS MENOMINEE
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME, PROFILES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SEND THE
COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UP.
EVENTUALLY, EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER US TO OCCLUDE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL IN TURN CHANGE THE PRECIP
TYPE TO ALL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
BECOMING RELEGATED TO THE EAST-WIND UPSLOPES OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND
THE KEWEENAW, WHERE SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
COULD BE SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER, TO MAKE MATTERS MORE
CONFUSING, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WORKS IN BEHIND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD INTRODUCE MORE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN INTO THE MIX OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP AS
WE BRIEFLY LOSE OUR ICE CRYSTALS. BOTTOM LINE, BE READY FOR A MESSY
SYSTEM WITH A MELANGE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THE TABLE,
PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
AS FAR AS TOTALS, WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UP, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10IN
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY COURTESY OF UPSLOPING AMID
EASTERLY FLOW. THE KEWEENAW LOOKS TO PICK UP TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT (70% CHANCE BY 00Z THURSDAY) WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR SOUTHERN UP COUNTIES LOOK TO PICK UP AROUND 2-
5IN OF SNOW, HIGHEST NORTH OF US-2. MUCH OF THE UP SHOULD PICK UP AT
LEAST TRACE ICE AMOUNTS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR HONEST-TO-GOODNESS
MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UP, CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER, AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN
UP AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
FINALLY, STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50
MPH OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO BLOWING SNOW, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS FROM A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL DIRECTION ALONG
WITH HEAVY, WET SNOW COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ALONG WITH SOME SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UP, AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
AS THE FORCING WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE
SNOWFALL TO LIGHTEN, WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE MOISTURE ALOFT GETS LOST AND THE LOWER
LEVELS FAIL TO REACH THE DGZ. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WINTER STORM COULD
MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY AS A COLORADO LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN; THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
WET SNOWFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM TOO, THOUGH THERE ARE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR MIDWEEK STORM.
BEHIND THIS, EXPECT MORE 'WINTER-LIKE' CONDITIONS AS A SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS
MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER US THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TRYING TO MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE KEWEENAW BUT THUS FAR THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
CLOUDS AND MIXING OVER THE LAND HAS PREVENTED THE CLOUDS FROM
PENETRATING INLAND.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AS A WINTER STORM
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW,
AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIPITATION, TO THE U.P LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY FREEZING RAIN COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW,
ESPECIALLY AT IWD, WITH MAINLY SNOW AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z WITH
VISIBILITY FALLING TO LIFR, VLIFR AND AIRPORT MINIMUMS, PARTICULARLY
AT CMX AND SAW. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG OVER THE KEWEENAW
WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUST OVER 40KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT
CMX. VISIBLITY MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IN THE ISSUED TAFS FOR CMX AS THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BEGINS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AT SAW AND IWD AND COULD NOT RULE OUT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
NE WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE. EXPECT GALES OVER THE WESTERN ARM BY THE
EARLY EVENING TO THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT, POSSIBLY HIGHER TO 55
KT IN THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, GALES
UP TO 40-45KT REMAIN MORE LIKELY. THAT SAID, SPORADIC STORM-FORCE
GUSTS TO 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW GALES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED
BY WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD CERTAINLY STILL SEE SOME
PATCHES OF FREEZING SPRAY AS STRONG 20-30KT EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFTING OVER TO THE NW REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 20KTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009>012-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ242>250-263>266.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...CB/LC
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...CB/LC
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