001
FXUS63 KMQT 180946
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
446 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY
WITH HEAVY SNOW, PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND STRONG EAST
WINDS. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
FROM THE KEWEENAW TO NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. HIGHEST
ICE AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FOR THE KEWEENAW THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ONTONAGON AND THE COUNTIES ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
TO THE U.P. AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WINTER WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO THE U.P. THIS MORNING AS RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM
A 985 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER AS OF 3 AM EST.
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAVE SHOWED PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH MORE OF A
MIX CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. THE FORECAST THUS REMAINS MORE OR LESS
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING, ALBEIT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
THE WARM FRONT STALLS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WARM LAYER ALOFT STRADDLING THE 0C
ISOTHERM INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AS DYNAMIC COOLING
EFFECTS HELP TO PUSH THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING, BUT INTERMITTENT
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE TABLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES PERIODICALLY LETS UP. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE TEMPS HOVER SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.
EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BRIEFLY WORKS INTO THE AREA, BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
WILL THEN QUICKLY FILL BACK IN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. THIS MAY TILT THE SCALES BACK IN FAVOR OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR MIXED PRECIP FOR A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS F-GEN FORCING
WANES AND WE BRIEFLY LOSE ACCESS TO THE DGZ. BOTTOM LINE, BE READY
FOR ALL MODES OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AS A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO
UNFOLDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. FORECAST PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED APPRECIABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MARQUETTE COUNTY, WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH RESIDE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER. MEANWHILE,
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO BLOWING SNOW, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS FROM A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL DIRECTION ALONG
WITH HEAVY, WET SNOW COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ALONG WITH SOME SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. WINTER HEADLINES
ARE UNCHANGED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
LIGHTER SNOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN, WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW AND CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING IN THE KEWEENAW
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAY THEN SEE A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WINTER STORM COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS A COLORADO LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM TOO, HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ARE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUR MIDWEEK STORM.
BEHIND THIS, EXPECT MORE 'WINTER-LIKE' CONDITIONS AS A SHOT OF
REINFORCING COLD AIR DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS
MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER US THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY WED 09Z AS A WINTER STORM
ENTERS THE REGION. EXPECT GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO LIFR/VLIFR EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. INITIAL PTYPE AT ONSET,
THOUGH, COULD BE A -FZRASN MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. IN
ADDITION, LLWS WILL BE A THREAT IN THE WED 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS UNDER 2K FEET. AT THE SURFACE, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AT CMX WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT SAW AND IWD.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 446 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE
REGION, WITH GALES SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE LAKE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MAKES ONLY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SPORADIC STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS WILL MORE COMMONLY BE
IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE. WINDS GRADUALLY FALL BELOW GALES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED BY WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD CERTAINLY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING SPRAY AS STRONG 20-30KT EASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFTING OVER TO THE NW REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ002-009>012-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ004>007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>250-264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB/LC
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