819
FXUS63 KMQT 182032
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE U.P. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATION OF
A GLAZE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD BECOME SLIPPERY.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE U.P.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER TO THE U.P. AGAIN ON FRIDAY, IN THE FORM OF HEAVY WET
SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, RAIN AND SLEET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
AFTERNOON GOES WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS PLACE THE WELL STACKED
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MN, WITH SFC OBS
SHOWING A OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW WI TOWARD GREEN BAY, WI.
THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOW LIFTED OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RADAR MOSAIC HIGHLIGHT AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVERHEAD PRIOR TO THE DRY SLOT BEHIND IT.
THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN 0.1 INCH AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO A HALF INCH.
MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
OVERHEAD. WHILE THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF, A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW
AND POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. THIS TIME WITH BETTER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW; A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS ARE MOSTLY OVER, BUT WINTRY
MIX COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE MOST TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM EST. KEPT THE
KEWEENAW IN A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL (ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF 3-9"), STRONGER WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS STILL ON
GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY IN THE 20S.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING OVER IRONWOOD,
PLACING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW. ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES IN THE KEWEENAW WITH 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WARMEST SOUTH.
TEMPS THEN SETTLE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 20S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (COLORADO LOW) TONIGHT AND TRACK TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING MORE HEAVY, WET SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE U.P ALONG WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST, OF FREEZING
RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
NARROW AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 3+
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE IN THE 60-70% RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. PROBABILITIES FOR >6" ARE STILL RATHER LOW, LIKELY DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE AND THE RATHER NARROW AXIS
OF HEAVY SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WINTER HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT.
CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES YIELDING LAKE ENHANCED
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (25-50% CHANCE). DRIER WEATHER IS
FAVORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
END THE MONTH WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS EMANATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS IS NOTED WELL IN THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK OF 40-50% CHANCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY
THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
IFR, LIFR AND VLIFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A WINTER
STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE U.P. HEAVY SNOW WAS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VLIFR / AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
THOUGH THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON, UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP FOG OVER THE AIRPORT ALONG WITH PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW WAS EXITING THE SAW BUT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH FOG AND PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IWD WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MAINLY RAIN AND A FEW SNOW
FLAKES POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
EASTERLY GALES OF 35-45 KTS LAKE-WIDE WITH A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS
TO 50 KTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS NEAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY, EXPECT
WINDS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WITH 20-30 KT WINDS LAKEWIDE. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
GALES TO 35+ KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. WITH
COLDER AIR RETURNING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
PERIODS OF 20-30 KT WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
MIZ002-009>012-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004>007-
013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ242-251-263-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>250-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...77/NL
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...77
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