299
FXUS63 KMQT 090509
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE KEWEENAW AND BY THE LAKESHORES.
- ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING IN THE 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAILING DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT MAY IMPACT THE
U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ITS BEEN THIS WAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO FAR
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S SHORTWAVE, SAVE FOR MORNING CLOUD COVER OVER
THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS AND SPINE NORTH OF MASS CITY EARLY. UNDER
THESE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
EVEN CLIMBING INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, INTERIOR WEST, AND
BY LAKE SUPERIOR IN MARQUETTE COUNTY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL
WITH KCMX WINNING GOLD WITH ITS PEAK WIND OF 43 MPH AT 0830 ET.
OUTSIDE OF THE KEWEENAW, WHICH HAS EXPERIENCED GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO FAR, GUSTY WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OBSERVED
IN THE 20S. GIVEN THAT WE'VE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HIGHER SUN ANGLE
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF OBSERVATIONS
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR DOWNWARD NIGHTTIME
TREK. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT LIGHTEN
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
TONIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, PASSING
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THUNDER BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND REIGNITION OF THE
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL. THESE ABNORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. MONDAY, ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 40S AND 50S IS ALSO EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 35 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW AND BY LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN MONDAY AS THEY BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW'S PARENT SHORTWAVE, BUT STILL LIKELY BLOW 20-30
MPH FOR MOST OF THE MORNING IN THE KEWEENAW AND BY LAKE SUPERIOR.
CAMS DO SUGGEST A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE LOW'S WEAK WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT A MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE PACKAGES SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF IT ALL.
THE PAST 24 HOURS HASN'T SHOWN MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD, SAVE FOR MAYBE AN EARLIER START TO SNOW
IN THE WEST HALF TUESDAY AND BETTER AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE POST
SYSTEM LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE 06Z AND 12Z EC TRENDED SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH THEN RESULTS IN
A LESS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE QPF SHIELD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER, FAVORING ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE FOR NOW, THE OVERALL PROGRESSION IN THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
WITH A SURFACE HIGH TRANSITING NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SECOND
SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES AND LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. PRECEDING SWATH OF ISENTROPICALLY FORCED SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIZZLING NORTHERN STREAM'S SURFACE LOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TWO FEATURES
BEGIN PHASING. BY WEDNESDAY, THE REMAINING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH ITS INVERTED
TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES UNDER THE SUPPORT OF LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS TIED TO A
150KT JET STREAK NEAR 300MB. THE 850MB AIRMASS LOOKS TO SLOWLY COOL
THROUGH THIS TRANSITION, REACHING NEAR -7C WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING TO NEAR -13C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
REINFORCE SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED
COMPONENT, UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT
OVERNIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELTS.
HAZARDS WITH THIS EVENT WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE, WET SNOW, BECOMING FLUFFIER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
WHEN THE GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRESENT AND BETTER SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PROBABILITIES OF >2 INCHES PER 6 HOURS CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (NOW 40-55%) AND 30-50% CHANCE FOR THE STORM
TOTAL OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE REGION
TOUCHING WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL CLIPPER
WORKING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY'S GUIDANCE, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL OUTLIER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MEAN AGREEMENT
AND GENERAL CLUSTERING OF THE SURFACE LOWS DO POINT TO GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM THOUGH GIVEN 6Z GFS AND EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
10+MB AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS BY 10-20+MB, NOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THOUGH, BOTH THE 6Z GEFS AND EC SUGGEST
40-60% PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS DURING THE
EVENT AND A 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THOUGH
MODELS INDICATE A 20-40% CHANCE OF A LAYER OF FEW/SCT THAT REACHES
BELOW 3KFT AT ALL SITES AROUND 15Z TODAY. WIND GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND
30 KT AT CMX AROUND 11Z, FIRST OUT OF THE SW EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING W LATER IN THE MORNING AND NW TO N LATER IN THE PERIOD. A
LLJ WILL LEAD TO A LLWS THREAT AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS TAF. AFTER
00Z TUESDAY, SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS UP
TO 30% LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX AND IWD PRIOR TO 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
GALE CONDITIONS LIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECTING THE WINDS TO
STEADILY INCREASE, LIKELY PEAKING AT OR NEAR GALE MONDAY MORNING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW, AND 20-30KTS ELSEWHERE. OPTED TO GO
AHEAD AND HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR WHERE GALES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR. WINDS LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, LIKELY FALLING BELOW
20KTS LAKE-WIDE BY EVENING.
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED
WINDS IS EXPECTED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR GALES ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HIGH END
GALES AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTERWARDS, WINDS
LIGHTEN TO NEAR OR BELOW 20KTS LAKE-WIDE SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JTP
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