530
FXUS63 KMQT 100514
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
114 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAILING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SNOWFALL OF 3-9 INCHES, HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT MAY IMPACT THE
U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE
REGION INTO FAR EASTERN ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE U.P. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, STARTING OUT IN THE 40S THIS
MORNING AND NOW IN THE LOW 60S OVER MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING SLOWLY OR HOLDING STEADY
IN THE 40S. WINDS GUSTED TO 49 MPH WITH THE FROPA AT COPPER HARBOR
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PASSING, MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE FILTERING THE SUNLIGHT AT TIMES BUT OVERALL
SUNSHINE WAS ABUNDANT THROUGH THE DAY.
A PROGRESSIVE, ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH AN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND TOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ SNOWFALL IN 24 HRS FOR THE POTENTIAL
SYSTEMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/SUNDAY ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY, DISCUSSED BELOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S) THROUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARDS. WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO
THE NEAR LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB
JET ALONG WITH A BAND OF STRONG FGEN AT 850-700MB. A CROSS SECTION
FROM NORTHERN WI THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. SHOWS STRONG SLOPING
FGEN BETWEEN 850-700MB WITH DEEP SATURATION, STRONG LIFT AND
NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER HINTING AT CSI BANDING. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT FALLS BELOW THE DGZ, WHICH
COMBINED WITH WARMER PROFILES WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS LOWER, 10:1 TO
12:1 EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE THAT PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. INTRODUCING MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE U.P.
WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW AS YOU GO NORTH.
WHILE THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW THE REFS PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ HAS
COME UP TO NEAR 100% OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY
WHICH WILL ALSO SEE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTY OF 70-80%. THE AXIS OF 70-80% PROBABILITIES EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH BARAGA TO EASTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY. AS
FAR A 8"+ MARQUETTE COUNTY (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) HAS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ IN 24HR ARE LOWER, IN THE 30-
40% RANGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.
AS FAR AS IMPACTS, HEAVY SNOW RATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMBINED WITH WETTER, DENSE SNOW COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT
EVEN IF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER END ADVISORY. HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS
HIGHEST IN THIS AREA, ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY
AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST
THOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER DUE TO LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF
IN THE EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE LOW LEVELS AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER (MAINLY SNOW) RETURNS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS TWO
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TWO WAVES OF SNOW MARK THE BIGGEST AVIATION IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD.
THE FIRST OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW
OCCURING AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR-IFR VISBY AT CMX. AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY (20% OR LESS) AT IWD AND NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY (~30%) AT
CMX/SAW EITHER. THE NEXT ROUND WILL ARRIVE AROUND 00Z, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS (BOTH CEILINGS AND VIS) NEAR 50% AT
SAW AND AROUND 30% AT CMX AND IWD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH CMX SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE EAST UP TO 20 KT WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS FALLING TO LESS THAN 20KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 25KT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THE LOW EXITS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 30KT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST GALES POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE),
SHIFTING NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20KT ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...NL
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