904
FXUS63 KMQT 101143
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAILING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SNOWFALL OF 6-9 INCHES, HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P. WITH A WIDESPREAD
3-5 INCHES EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT MAY IMPACT THE
U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SETTING UP FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SOUTH OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALREADY, A
SURFACE LOW HAS CLOSED OFF OVER FAR WESTERN KS AND NE, WHILE CLOSER
TO HOME WEAK FORCING OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS KICKED OFF A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS STRETCHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND BISECTING
THE KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD, THE BAND
SHOULD LIKEWISE DROP MORE ESE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP BEFORE
FALLING APART AFTER SUNRISE. SNOWFALL TOTALS WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH;
EXPECT AROUND 1-2IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW BY SUNRISE, AND LESS THAN AN
INCH ELSEWHERE. A BRIEF BREAK IN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS, WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW RIDES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING TODAY,
TRACKING NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, THE
U.P. WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET ALONG
WITH A BAND OF STRONG FGEN AT 850-700MB. A CROSS SECTION FROM
NORTHERN WI THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. SHOWS STRONG SLOPING FGEN
BETWEEN 850-700MB WITH DEEP SATURATION, STRONG LIFT AND NEGATIVE EPV
WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER HINTING AT CSI BANDING. STILL, SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT OUR STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS BELOW OUR ELEVATED DGZ, AND
MOST OF THE COLUMN COMING IN ABOVE -10C. THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
THAT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE UP TONIGHT, INTRODUCING
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW
AS YOU GO NORTH. WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT SLRS ON THE LOWER-END,
GENERALLY AROUND 10-12:1 FOR MUCH OF THE UP, HIGHER TO NEAR 15:1
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EVEN LOWER (BELOW 10:1) OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UP.
SO WHAT DOES THIS LOOK LIKE AS FAR AS IMPACTS? STEADIER SNOWFALL
RATES (HREF, FOR ITS PART, FAVORS 0.25-0.50IN/HR) ARRIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN UP BY EARLY EVENING, AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE UP AFTER SUNSET. HEAVIER RATES ABOVE A HALF INCH AND EVENTUALLY
UP TO 1IN/HR DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY,
AWAY FROM THE WATER, DUE TO UPSLOPING AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT AMID A
FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS OUR
SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS EXIT OVER/SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER, WINDS
BACKING NORTHERLY WILL KEEP IN LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FROM MARQUETTE
COUNTY EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING, THEN SNOW FINALLY WRAPS UP
ENTIRELY OVERNIGHT COURTESY OF DRIER AIR AND FALLING INVERSION
HEIGHTS.
SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL, NATURALLY, BE HIGHEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY, INLAND OF
SUPERIOR. THERE, ENSEMBLES HIGHLIGHT AROUND 80% CHANCE FOR SNOW
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8" WITH A 60% OR HIGHER CHANCE OF TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 6" ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
(GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CHAMPION). THE REMAINDER OF
THE UP, SAVE SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY WHERE SLRS REMAIN LOWER,
FALLS SAFELY WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND
4-6" AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE TERRAIN AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT CAN OCCUR. THE LATTER CASE INCLUDES AREAS IN THE EASTERN
UP NORTH OF M-28. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
GIVEN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THIS WOULD
RAISE GREATER CONCERNS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WERE WE TO HAVE HIGHER SLRS, BUT STILL, SOME PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY NEAR
SUPERIOR. HAVE UPGRADED MARQUETTE COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE UP.
A PROGRESSIVE, ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH AN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ SNOWFALL IN 24 HRS
FOR THE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/SUNDAY ARE IN
THE 30-50% RANGE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY NEAR
NORMAL (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) THROUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH COLDER WEATHER STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MVFR WITH PERIOD IFR CIGS/VIS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE WEST HALF THIS
MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UP.
THIS BAND WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO SAW THIS MORNING AS IT
PROGRESSES SE AND DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM LIFTS S TO
N THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE SPREAD OVER THE UP.
SNOWFALL INTENSITY GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT OURS, WHERE IFR/LIFR VIS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AFTER
00Z, ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WINDS COMING IN GENERALLY OUT OF THE N ARE STARTING OFF AT AROUND 15-
20KTS. WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. A THE LOW EXITS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 30KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A
FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING (AROUND A
30% CHANCE). THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST GALES POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT (40%
CHANCE), SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20KT ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC/NL
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC/NL
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