914
FXUS63 KMQT 110535
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAILING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN U.P.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN,
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. FOR 5-9" OF SNOWFALL, WITH UP TO A
FOOT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA
FOR 2-6" OF SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE U.P. RETURNED TO WINTER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE THE
FIRST DAY IN THE LAST 9 THAT WILL HAVE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AT THE
MARQUETTE WFO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ZONAL FLOW HAD TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE NEXT BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS
TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN WI AND THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P, MENOMINEE
WAS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND 30S IN THE EAST AND SOUTH.
A PROGRESSIVE, ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH AN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND TOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE ENTIRE U.P. WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER KS/MO AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN
IL TONIGHT AND TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN WI AND THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTENSIFY AS 850-
700MB FGEN INCREASES. CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CSI WITH DEEP RH THROUGH AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NARROW BANDED STRUCTURES OF INTENSE SNOWFALL
THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT, LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BANDS WILL LIFT AND PLACEMENT,
THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. A 850-700MB DRY SLOT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. RESULTING IN A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL FILL BACK IN DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS
FGEN INCREASES AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COOL, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF MENOMINEE COUNTY
THIS EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW, ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
HAVE UPGRADED SEVERAL COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS, MUCH OF THE
WESTERN THROUGH EASTERN U.P. WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TOTALS
ARE BORDERLINE WARNING LEVELS IN SOME AREAS BUT GIVEN THE IMPACT TO
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THE SNOW BEING ON THE DENSER SIDE HAVE OPTED
FOR WARNINGS WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 5-8" IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN HALF, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST SNOW INTENSITY. THIS COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR A FOOT.
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A VIGOROUS CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE U.P. BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
IT. A PERIOD OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS. AT THIS TIME
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6-12". NBMV5 PROBABILITIES FOR
>6" OF SNOWFALL IS 70-90% OVER MOST OF THE U.P., WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBS OVER THE TERRAIN. WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW LAYS ACROSS
THE U.P. AT THIS TIME SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ARE
STILL LIKELY, STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS AND MESSAGING.
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SNOW COMES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY BEFORE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT ON HOW A LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
GFS/GEFS IS DETERMINED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER AND KEEP IT
FURTHER SOUTH, LARGELY MISSING THE AREA. THE ECMWF/ENS ARE SLOWER
AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM OVER THE
U.P.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY. CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP EARLY THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT NOTED IN REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSIS
HAS RESULTED IN A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND BRIEFLY RETURNED MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO DAYBREAK AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS EAST AND SNOW
FILLS BACK INTO ALL TERMINALS.
PERIODS OF LIFR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PREVAILING LIFR WILL BE AT SAW AND CMX AFTER 14Z, WITH TEMPORARY
LIFR ALSO FORECAST FOR IWD AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, FIRST OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FOR TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT AT SAW AROUND 16Z-22Z, WHICH
COULD CAUSE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
FALLING SNOW. IN THE EVENING HOURS, SNOW MOVES OUT AND IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND EAST
TO LAKE HURON BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25KT. AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY ON WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY TO 30 KT, ALONG WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST GALES LIKELY BY THURSDAY NIGHT
(60% CHANCE), SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW
20KT ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (50-60%
CHANCE), THOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003-012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-
014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...BW/GS
MARINE...LC/NL
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