028
FXUS63 KMQT 110707
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING, LARGELY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGERS IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN,
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4-6" OF SNOWFALL, WITH UP
TO 10" OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA FOR 2-
5" OF SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND WINDIER EVENT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL IL, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN LP. THE STORM CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN THROUGH THE LP
TO FINALLY REACH SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS COMING AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME, THE BAND OF SNOW IS PARKED OVER THE
WESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL UP, WHERE STRONGEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP ARE EXPERIENCING
WHAT IS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WE ARE FEELING THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY SLOT NOSING INTO
THE UP; WITH THE INCREASING LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS, SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING AT TIMES EVEN OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL UP. HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-IMPACT AND
FLEETING, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT WE SATURATE AGAIN IN
THE DGZ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK THIS
MORNING, EXPECT THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRONGEST FGEN TO SLIDE
FROM WEST TO NORTH ACROSS THE UP THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING EASTWARD AGAIN IN TURN.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MARQUETTE COUNTY UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
THERE, SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.50-0.75IN/HR, OR EVEN TO
1IN/HR (30% CHANCE) AS WE HEAD INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELSEWHERE,
SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 0.25-0.50IN/HR. SNOW TAPERS
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT AS WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY, EXPECT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH-WIND SNOW
BELTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS GENERALLY UP TO 4-6" ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WARNED AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-10" OVER NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY, INLAND OF SUPERIOR. OVER THE ADVISORY AREAS, ANOTHER 2-5" IS
EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20-25MPH BECOMING COMMON. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO SUPERIOR, WITH BLOWING
SNOW BECOMING A CONCERN THERE AS WELL.
THOUGH MUCH OF THE UP IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF REPRIEVE, HAVE KEPT
THE WINTER HEADLINES IN PLACE AS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE SNOW ON TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A VIGOROUS CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE U.P. BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
IT. A PERIOD OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS. AT THIS TIME
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6-12". NBMV5 PROBABILITIES FOR
>6" OF SNOWFALL IS 70-90% OVER MOST OF THE U.P., WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBS OVER THE TERRAIN. WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW LAYS ACROSS
THE U.P. AT THIS TIME SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ARE
STILL LIKELY, STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS AND MESSAGING. WILL
NOTE THAT THE NAM, NOW GOING OUT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, TAKES ON A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO ITS COLLEAGUES, BRINGING THE
SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INSTEAD OF THE UP OR NORTHERN
WI.
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SNOW COMES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY BEFORE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT ON HOW A LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
GFS/GEFS IS DETERMINED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER AND KEEP IT
FURTHER SOUTH, LARGELY MISSING THE AREA. THE ECMWF/ENS ARE SLOWER
AND STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM OVER THE
U.P.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY. CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP EARLY THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT NOTED IN REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSIS
HAS RESULTED IN A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND BRIEFLY RETURNED MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO DAYBREAK AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS EAST AND SNOW
FILLS BACK INTO ALL TERMINALS.
PERIODS OF LIFR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PREVAILING LIFR WILL BE AT SAW AND CMX AFTER 14Z, WITH TEMPORARY
LIFR ALSO FORECAST FOR IWD AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, FIRST OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FOR TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT AT SAW AROUND 16Z-22Z, WHICH
COULD CAUSE A BLOWING SNOW THREAT AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
FALLING SNOW. IN THE EVENING HOURS, SNOW MOVES OUT AND IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND THEN VFR IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN NORTHEAST TO LAKE HURON BY TONIGHT. AMID A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, NORTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 25KTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE WHILE COMING IN GENERALLY AROUND 20KTS IN THE
WESTERN ARM. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TODAY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY TO
30 KT, ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST
GALES LIKELY BY THURSDAY NIGHT (60% CHANCE), SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20KT ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (50-60% CHANCE), THOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003-012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-
014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC/NL
AVIATION...BW/GS
MARINE...LC/NL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page