800
FXUS63 KMQT 120513
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
113 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN ALGER COUNTY WERE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS COULD BRING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TO PARTS
OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND KEWEENAW THURSDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK. RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED A BAND OF SNOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.P. SLOWLY PUSHING
EASTWARDS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SNOW WAS BACK OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.P. IN AN AREA OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WERE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORHTWEST, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND OVER THE KEWEENAW. OVERALL
SNOW RATES WERE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WITH THE BANDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, COOLING LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE A PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING WITH
STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS PUSHING 9 KFT. INTRODUCED
POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE LAKE EFFECT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND(S). THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL OF UP TO 4" BUT OVERALL 1-2" IS EXPECTED, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN ALGER COUNTY. LAKE EFFECT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A VIGOROUS CLIPPER LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE U.P. BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
IT. A PERIOD OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST HAS BECOME A BIT LOWER AS THE CAMS LARGELY HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. WILL STICK WITH
WINTER STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK. ALSO MENTIONED BLOWING SNOW IN THE WATCHES, WITH NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN U.P. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN, GUSTING 40 MPH,
POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE OF THE KEWEENAW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND SEASONABLE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
A SWATH OF ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOWFALL. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN, WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE U.P., WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. AND
AREAS OF UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW OCCURS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
DETAILS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY. CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE
REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SPREADING WEST TO EAST FROM
00-06Z FRI. THIS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD AFTER
00Z AS A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN UP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS SUBSIDING TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT, AND THEN BELOW 20 KT
TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT (70-80% CHANCE), SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
(40-60% CHANCE). WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH GALES UP
TO 40 KT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20KT ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (50-60% CHANCE), THOUGH THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ001>004-009>012-084.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC/NL
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