636
FXUS63 KMQT 121824
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
224 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
WINDS COULD BRING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN U.P. AND KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE ON FRIDAY AS GUSTY WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE U.P
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UP. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL UP, WHERE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
RE-DEVELOP. THIS PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 1-2IN EXPECTED FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES; LIGHTER AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-28
IN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY, AND TRACE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EVEN GRAZE
EASTERN MARQUETTE AND DELTA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS MORNING QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START OFF.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WINTER STORM.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A QUICKLY-MOVING CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA, POSSIBLY DEEPENING BELOW 990MB BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ROBUST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A ~40-50KT LLJ, WITH PLENTY DEEP
MOISTURE AND OUR DGZ CO-LOCATED WITH OUR STRONGEST ASCENT WILL ALLOW
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN UP AROUND
00Z TONIGHT. THIS CONTINUES TO FILL IN AREA-WIDE BY EARLY FRIDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK, AS HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS A SOMEWHAT MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK (OVER THE UP OR LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING)
COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS (OVER NORTHERN WI BY FRIDAY MORNING).
THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF OUR WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL, AS THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION RESULTS IN MORE OF A QUICK
HIT WHILE POTENTIALLY ALLOWING IN A DRY SLOT THAT COULD FURTHER
ERODE AWAY OUR SNOWFALL FROM 06Z ONWARDS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY
SOLUTIONS, MEANWHILE, KEEP US COMFORTABLY BENEATH THE SWATH OF
STEADY, HEAVIER SNOWFALL UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY. STILL,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF DURATION. A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ONE INCH PER
HOUR SNOW RATES LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN POSSIBLY LEADING TO
EVEN HIGHER RATES UP TO 2IN/HR ACROSS US-2 DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
(50% CHANCE PER THE HREF). SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW STARTS TO TAPER
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MAKES ITS EASTWARD TREK OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN LP. HOWEVER, BLUSTERY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF
A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NW WIND
SNOW BELTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, FINALLY TAPERING FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO THE EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.5IN/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LES.
AS FAR AS TOTALS, A WIDESPREAD 6-10IN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UP WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UP AND IN THE NORTH-WIND SNOW BELTS IF THE EASTERN UP.
THE KEWEENAW, TOO, WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT GIVEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. THERE, EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD 8-12IN WITH A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SPINE. WHAT MAY WORK AGAINST TOTALS (IN
ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PROBLEM OF STORM TRACK) IS THE
EXPECTED BLUSTERY WINDS, WHICH MAY SHRED OUR SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER
SLRS. HOWEVER, THIS PRESENTS AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN AS BLOWING SNOW
MAY LEAD TO NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND THE EASTERN UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WITH
THE EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HAVE DECIDED
TO UPGRADE OUR WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY
OF THE UP.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND SEASONABLE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
A SWATH OF ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOWFALL. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN, WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE U.P., WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE U.P. AND
AREAS OF UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW OCCURS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
DETAILS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY. CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WHEN A LOW TRACKS
INTO NORTHERN WI. PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR VIS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VLIFR VIS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW.
ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP AT SAW WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WAS FOR
VLIFR. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN WI, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-
35 KTS AND LLWS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI, BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25-30KTS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE, THEN WINDS FALL BELOW 20KTS BY
MID MORNING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST GALES ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT (80%+ CHANCE), SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE (40-60% CHANCE). WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH GALES UP TO 40 KT BEFORE FALLING BELOW
20KT ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (50-60%
CHANCE), THOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ011-012.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ243>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...LC/NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC/NL
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