395
FXUS63 KMQT 130004
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
804 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS
COULD BRING NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. AND KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE ON FRIDAY AS GUSTY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.P.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND
THE UNITED STATES WITH A STRONG JET STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS PROVIDING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA
TODAY EXCEPT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IN THE KEWEENAW AND PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.P. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE FROM WAS
MARQUETTE COUNTY MOVING INTO ALGER COUNTY MOST OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE THIS MORNING BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND HAD CAUSED
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
A STRONG, FAST MOVING, CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
BACK INTO THE U.P. WITH THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.P.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH A BIT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
WITH SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUSLY WERE MOVING THE LOW OVERHEAD (LESS
SNOWY SOLUTION) NOW KEEPING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE U.P. OTHER
GUIDANCE PUTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN WI AND THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT STRONG FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE U.P. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA. REFS PROBS FOR 1+ IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE NEAR 100% OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE RATES COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
30-40MPH (UP TO 50 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW) WILL RESULT IN WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THROUGH NOT EXPECTING THE CONDITIONS TO LAST
LONG ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CRITERIA. THE RESULT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD 4-
9" SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
SEEING THE LOWER END OF THE SNOWFALL DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
LAKESHORE FLOODING COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE KEWEENAW WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 17-18FT ARE FORECAST AND ALONG
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 10 FT. ISSUED
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.
ON FRIDAY THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO UPPER LOWER MICHIGAN BY
AFTERNOON AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH WINDS SNOWBELTS ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCT ANOTHER 4-6" OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH
WINDS SNOWBELTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS WELL,
GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY WITH
BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE M-28 CORRIDOR. DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LESS, CLOSER TO A FEW INCHES AS CONVERGENCE GETS PUSHED INLAND FROM
THE LAKESHORE.
LAKE EFFECT WILL RAMP DOWN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONAL
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD GIVE PEOPLE A CHANCE TO
DIG OUT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
ALL EYES TURN TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG WINTER
STORM TAKES SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A BAND OF VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. THE EPS IS
STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM SUGGESTING THAT IT COULD BRING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LATE DECEMBER STORM, THROUGH
WITHOUT THE HEAVY WET SNOW (WHICH WAS VERY PROBLEMATIC) AT THE ONSET
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER. THE GEFS, WHILE STILL STRONG, IS
WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AND WOULD HAVE LESS IMPACTFUL WIND/BLOWING
SNOW. BOTH SETS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO HAVE THE REGION ON THE
WESTERN EDGE, SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD BE OVER THE
EASTERN U.P. WITH HEAVIER SNOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS YOU MOVE WEST THROUGH THE U.P.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TRACK AND DETAILS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MONDAY, LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND
UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADS INTO
THE U.P. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHERN WI.
PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR VIS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
VLIFR VIS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING LLWS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KT INTO FRI MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI, WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A QUICK MOVING 29.1 INCH LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, REACHING UPPER LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE
HURON BY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW SOUTHEAST GALES OF 40-45KT WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING 12-18 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST WITH GALES TO
40KT. NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONG BUT SLOWER
MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH GALES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS (50-70%
CHANCE). MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001-003-011-012.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MIZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...CB/77
MARINE...LC/NL
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