455
FXUS63 KMQT 130957
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE UP TODAY BRINGS BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE UP TODAY, WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS
TODAY UP TO 1 FOOT AND VISIBILITY AT 1/4 MILE OR LOWER AT TIMES.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE UP UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
- A LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ARRIVE IN THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL TO THE UP, WITH SNOW TOTALS OF
1-3 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE UP BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
- FOR THE SYSTEM TODAY, WIDESPREAD GALES ARE ONGOING, DRIVING WAVES
UP TO 14 FEET OFF THE SHORES OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LEADING
TO A MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING THREAT. FOR THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WAVES OF 25-30 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN STANNARD
ROCK, AND THE SHORES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 556 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KMQT RADAR RETURNS AT 06Z SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVERSPREADING THE UP WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND BEING ORIENTED NW/SE
ALONG A LINE FROM MNM TO IMT TO ONTM4. THE PEAK REFLECTIVITY
VALUES ARE STILL A LITTLE LESS THAN 30 DBZ, INDICATING NOT QUITE
1"/HR RATES, BUT THE IMT METAR SHOWING 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES AT TIMES MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. FURTHERMORE, WIND GUSTS
ARE TRENDING UPWARDS, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW HAZARDS AS WELL AS THE FALLING SNOW. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A
987MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS, ALREADY TRACKING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD BRING IT ALONG A TRACK SOUTH
OF THE UP LIKE THE ENSEMBLES HINTED AT PRIOR TO THIS MORNING.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A NEUTRALLY TILTED COMPACT 500MB TROUGH
OVER MINNESOTA THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NEGATIVELY TILTING,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH OR DROP A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE UP. BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW HAS
THE UP IN A PRIME AREA FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FGEN BANDED
SNOWFALL WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME 1"+/HR SNOWFALL RATES.
THE 00Z HREF SHOWS THROUGH 8 AM EST THIS MORNING 40-80% CHANCES
OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPID
HEIGHT RISES/FALLS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND 25-30 MPH
IN THE INTERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT
SNOWFALL RATES (EVEN AFTER SNOWFALL RATES LIGHTEN UP IN THE PM
IN A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT SETUP) LEAD TO 60+% CHANCES OF VISIBILITY
AROUND 1/4 MILE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WHILE THESE MAY BE
"BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS", CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF BOTH
35+ MPH WINDS AND 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY FOR 3+ HOURS WITH NO
BREAKS IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY BLIZZARD WARNINGS TODAY. HOWEVER,
THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE ON-TRACK, WITH SOME MINOR
TIME EXTENSIONS FOR A FEW COUNTIES DUE TO HI-RES MODELS HANGING
ONTO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL LONGER IN THE EVENING. WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WILL LEAD TO MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING
IN PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS NEAR THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE GARDEN PENINSULA TODAY.
SNOWFALL WRAPS UP QUICKLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO NEAR-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR HIGHS
AND LIGHT WINDS, A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE PAST TWO WINTER STORMS.
THAT REPRIEVE IS SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS SATURDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES, DEEPENING AND TILTING AS IT DOES.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE AT THE SURFACE AS A MID-990S MB LOW PRESSURE
AROUND CO/WY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY, NAEFS IVT PLOTS SHOW A
DUAL-MOISTURE SUPPLY TO THIS SYSTEM WITH 90TH+ PERCENTILE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN (AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
~24 HOURS OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE), THE UP WILL BE ON THE NORTH AND
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, SO LITTLE TO NO
DRY SLOT AND PLENTY OF DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOWFALL OVER
THE UP. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE LOW, SO THIS WILL
IMPACT MENOMINEE, DELTA, SCHOOLCRAFT, ALGER, AND LUCE COUNTIES THE
MOST, THOUGH CHANCES OF OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IN 72 HOURS ARE STILL
NEAR 50% FOR EVEN THE FURTHEST WEST EXTENT OF THE UP. WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE DGZ IN GFS SOUNDINGS IN EXCESS OF 10KFT SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE
TIMES WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXCEED 2-3"/HR. THE DEEPENING LOW
CONTRASTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH PEAKING AT 30-70% EVEN IN THE INTERIOR UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON EVEN HIGH-
PRIORITY ROADS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TRAVELERS SHOULD FORMULATE BACKUP PLANS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION OF PERHAPS MULTIPLE DAYS WHERE
ROADS TO GROCERY STORES/ETC MAY BE IMPASSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OUTCOME IS HIGH - EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM 5.0 GIVES SNOW
TOTALS BY TUESDAY MORNING OF A FOOT AND A HALF TO 2 FEET FOR MUCH OF
THE UP. DESPITE MASSIVE DGZ DEPTHS, THIS SNOW TOTAL EVEN INCLUDES A
LOWER SNOW RATIO DUE TO HIGH WINDS TENDING TO FRACTURE DENDRITES
INTO MORE COMPACT SHAPES. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (CHANCES OF SNOWFALL BEGINNING PRIOR
TO 06Z SUNDAY ARE 15-30% ONLY) AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAILING THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
EVEN INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY, THOUGH SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
PLENTY MANAGEABLE. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE MARKED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW 10S AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THIS COMPARES TO THE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING HIGHS AROUND FREEZING AND LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER TEENS. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
ROUGHLY THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL, BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH. HOPE FOR
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK - INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD (50-70%
CHANCE) SEE MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADS INTO THE
U.P. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTHERN WI. PRIMARILY
IFR/LIFR VIS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VLIFR VIS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SNOW. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LLWS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KT INTO FRI MORNING. LLWS SUBSIDES AFTER 12Z FRI AND
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI, WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 556 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AS A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA TODAY,
EASTERLY GALES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS TURN NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
FALLING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING AND BELOW 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL PEAK AROUND 15 FT AROUND STANNARD ROCK THIS
MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO 4-7 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 4 FT BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CO-STYLE LOW THAT RUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BRINGING LONG-DURATION LOW VISIBILITY, COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS
TO THE LAKE SURFACE, DRIVING WIDESPREAD GALES, 40-70% CHANCES OF 50+
KT STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST HALF, AND EVEN UP TO 30% CHANCES
OF 64+ KT HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL
DRIVE STRONG WAVES, WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF OVER 25 FEET BETWEEN
STANNARD ROCK AND THE SHORELINES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES
(INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG BAY, MARQUETTE, AU TRAIN, AND MUNISING
AS WELL AS PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE). AS THE LOW QUICKLY
DEPARTS THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE, WIND GUSTS FALL
BELOW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BELOW GALES LATE
TUESDAY MORNING, AND BELOW 20 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WAVES WILL
FOLLOW SUIT, FALLING BELOW 20 FT TUESDAY MORNING, BELOW 10 FT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND BELOW 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.
MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PERIODICALLY BRING
WINDS TO 20-30 KT AND WAVES OF 4-7 FT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF SUCH EVENTS IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ001>003-010>012-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ001-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001>005-013-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ004>007-009-013-014-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...GS
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